How injuries are impacting the early part of the NHL season

Let’s talk about injuries and goaltending because injuries and goaltending were the twin storylines that dominated the first week or so of the new NHL season. Injuries always, always, always undermine the best-laid plans of any hopeful NHL team.

Last week, I was asked, on a podcast previewing the NHL season, to make a prediction for the Stanley Cup Final because that’s what you do in this business — make educated guesses to create fodder for conversation.

But I always issue the same caveat: That a championship contender in April will often look a lot different than the team that started the season in October, and it’s not just because of moves a team may make during the season or at the trade deadline.

Let’s face it, even the most aggressive trade deadline moves maybe net a team one or two additional pieces.

You win championships based on your core and how your core performs when playoffs start. And if your core is missing a key piece or two, too bad, so sad — but your chances just evaporated like the morning fog.

The problem with injuries is, they are just such a random factor in the game that you really have no control over. Smart managers and coaches know that the answer is always the same if you lose a Patrik Laine, an Aaron Ekblad or a Gabriel Landeskog for any extended period of time. So-and-so can’t be replaced, but someone else will get the opportunity to step up.

The Athletic: Opening night bummer | #CBJ lose winger Patrik Laine to arm injury, fall 4-1 to Hurricanes in Raleigh.

“Hopefully it’s not too serious.” — Johnny Gaudreau https://t.co/mr3HHQAy0H pic.twitter.com/Krm84bBkJ0

— Aaron Portzline (@Aportzline) October 13, 2022

But you know deep down, they’re just reading from a prepared script that they honestly don’t believe what they’re saying and they go to bed at night, cursing at the darkness, hoping for the best, but expecting the worst. Truth be told, NHL general managers are mostly pessimists at heart. They know that however well they may plan and build a roster, the difference between a successful and an unsuccessful year can sometimes come down to pure luck and who stays healthy when it matters the most.

GMs can also do math — the salary cap forced them to learn. It also brought a new appreciation and understanding of the odds. In the second year of the Seattle Kraken’s existence, the chances of actually celebrating with the Stanley Cup are now one-in-32. Or on average, three championships per franchise per century.

The reason they don’t say any of that out loud is because they’re convinced — incorrectly, I believe — that their fan bases can’t handle the truth. Sometimes, the only people who can reasonably point out the impact of injuries are the home team broadcasters. So, for example, there was a compelling graphic displayed during the telecast of the Vegas-Calgary game on Tuesday, which assessed not just overall man-games lost to injury, which is a scratch-the-surface stat,…