How real is Yamaha’s MotoGP dream of Valencia 2006 repeat?

Fabio Quartararo’s mission impossible coming to Valencia invites a tempting comparison to the only other time in the MotoGP era so far that a rank outsider coming into the season finale left said season finale clutching the big trophy.

“We’re still in the game. We have to be happy with that,” Yamaha team manager Lin Jarvis told MotoGP.com.

“It’s clear we have to win the race, which is not easy, and our competitors have to have some sort of misfortune, which is not the ideal way to win. But hey, in this game, anything can happen.

“I remember going to Valencia 2006, we were very yellow [in attire], we were Camel Yamaha, Valentino [Rossi] going there, it should have been a formality in a way.

“And the unthinkable happened – Vale fell and Nicky [Hayden] went with the title. I know in Valencia it’s a very difficult track so anything can happen.”

An Italian points leader? Check. That points leader being on the verge of making history as the champion who came back from the biggest-ever points deficit? Check. The unforgiving Valencia circuit? Check.

All of that is of course circumstantial, whereas the eight points between Nicky Hayden and Valentino Rossi then are very different to the 23 between Fabio Quartararo and Pecco Bagnaia now. But with it being harder than ever to score small handfuls of points in MotoGP, should its Valencia 2006 defeat really offer Yamaha a glimpse of hope after all?

The history lesson

Hayden only let a 51-point buffer slip away rather than the 91 points in Quartararo’s case, but – unlike Quartararo – Hayden, until the penultimate race, looked very much on course to head to Valencia with a very strong shot if not at least comfortable.

Then Honda team-mate Dani Pedrosa skittled him off the track, contributing to a massive 20-point Estoril swing towards Rossi that perhaps could’ve been even bigger than that – given that Rossi was struggling amid the Estoril chill and that a rider running behind Hayden/Pedrosa at the point of contact, Toni Elias, went on to beat Rossi in a photo-finish. Kenny Roberts Jr, also behind at the point of accident, was right there in the victory mix, too.

Pedrosa, a rookie, was aghast. Hayden, sounding like he was on the very verge of tears, was upset (if relatively magnanimous) with Pedrosa but seemingly even more upset with Honda for not having reined his team-mate in.

He was also unflinchingly realistic about his prospects.

“I mean, it’s never over, that’s why we line up. I was down there pulling for Elias and Roberts so hard in the motorhome.

“I swear his [Elias’s] parents couldn’t have been pulling for him any harder than I was. And that’s the truth. But truth is, Rossi’s just got to go follow me in Valencia.

“Anything can happen in racing but we know Valentino, let’s be real, give him eight points with one race to go, the dude’s just got to follow me.”

On Thursday in Valencia, too: “I know he [Rossi] is a big-time player,…