2023 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot: Stark’s 5 things to watch — Scott Rolen,

I could tell, just by all the layers of clothing I had to throw on Monday to bring in my Amazon delivery, that it wasn’t baseball season anymore. But at least it was the next best thing, by which I mean …

The first day of Hall of Fame voting season.

You won’t find anyone quite as magnetic as David Ortiz on the 2023 Hall ballot, which was announced Monday. You may not even find anyone who’s about to get elected. But there are some fascinating storylines to follow with the 28 names on the ballot. And here they come — in my Five Things to Watch on the 2023 Hall of Fame ballot.

1. It’s up to Scott Rolen to thwart a shutout

Scott Rolen won eight Gold Glove Awards in his career. (Duane Burleson / Associated Press)

Shutouts are awesome when, say, Max Scherzer throws them. Shutouts aren’t so awesome when the Hall of Fame voters throw them. So could that actually happen in this election? You don’t want to know the answer, but I’ll give it to you anyway:

Yep!

The only first-year candidate who figures to get more than, like, 12 votes is Carlos Beltrán. But if you think he’s getting elected on the first ballot, I have a lovely condo on the rings of Saturn I’d like to sell you.

So as we size up the 14 returning players from the 2022 ballot, it’s clear there’s only one man (not counting the voters in the Contemporary Baseball Era committee) who can save us from an empty podium in Cooperstown next July. It’s all up to Scott Rolen, my friends. And won’t he be ecstatic when that news reaches him?

With Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling all expunged from this ballot, Rolen is the top returning vote-getter. He reeled in 63.2 percent of the 394 votes cast a year ago, leaving him only 47 votes short of becoming the first third baseman elected to the Hall since Chipper Jones in 2018. So what are the chances Rolen can find another 50 votes before the totals are announced in late January? Let’s sum them up.

History is on his side! In the beginning, Rolen might not have thundered onto the ballot like Mike Schmidt. But despite a slow start, he still blew through the 60 percent barrier in 2022, his fifth year on the ballot.

Did you know that in the history of the modern voting system, no player has ever done that and not gotten elected? In fact, over the last 15 years, almost everyone who reached 60 percent that fast (or faster) was voted in the next year.

The ballot is now wide open! When Rolen first appeared on the ballot in 2018, the field was so deep, there were seven players up against him who have since gotten elected, plus Clemens, Bonds, Schilling and Fred McGriff (among others). That helps explain why Rolen received only 43 votes (10.2…