College Basketball Odds, Picks, Prediction for Northwestern vs. Illinois

Northwestern vs. Illinois Odds

The red-hot Northwestern Wildcats hit the road after a three-game home stretch as they head to Champaign to take on Illinois.

Northwestern has been one of the biggest surprises of the year in the Big Ten, and it has won — and covered — five straight. The Wildcats took down Purdue before a late-win against Indiana and a blowout of Iowa in Evanston.

Illinois remains without star Terrence Shannon Jr., who has missed the team’s last two games. The Illini did beat Minnesota on Monday, but had dropped two straight prior.

Can Illinois avenge its loss to Northwestern from nearly two months ago, or will the Wildcats run away with another double-digit victory, this time on the road?

There have been few seasons more impressive than that of Northwestern. Entering as 250/1 to win the Big Ten, the Wildcats are firmly in second place and just a game behind Purdue.

Northwestern has won five straight, doing so on the back of its suffocating defense. Chris Collins’ squad has held opponents to 63 points or less in all but one conference win (Indiana) — and that includes a 73-60 win against Illinois in early January.

Collins deploys a compact defense. The Wildcats are great with spacing and deploy frequent post traps. This is a disruptive defense that ranks 30th in turnover rate and isn’t shy of double teaming.

NW cuts off the inside and forces teams to beat it from the perimeter. The Wildcats are 319th in 3PA/FGA (42.2%) and just outside the top 100 in 3P%. This is a suffocating defense where turnovers are constant.

Transition offense is where Northwestern thrives. It’s a relentless offense that attacks the rim at a top 10 rate, per ShotQuality.

Slow the Wildcats down, though, and they struggle.

Northwestern’s offense is incredibly heavy in the pick-and-roll. It runs that play type over 20% of the time — eighth-most in college basketball — before either attacking at the rim or kicking it to the perimeter for catch-and-shoot 3s. Half of NW’s offense comes either in the PnR or off catch-and-shoot 3s.

The issue with the Wildcats — and why they rely on turnovers — is their defensive-savvy guards’ lack of success rate on offense. This is a team outside the top 300 in eFG%.

NW doesn’t turn the ball over and the offense often runs through Boo Buie and Chase Audige. Both take 28% of shots while on the floor, with Buie better inside and in terms of drawing contact. Meanwhile, Audige is Northwestern’s best shooter.

One of my biggest takeaways from last weekend’s slate was how well Illinois played in its near-win inside Assembly Hall without Shannon.

Shannon (17.0 PPG) has still not cleared the concussion protocol and will likely miss Thursday’s conference bout.

But the Illini are in good hands even without their do-it-all senior.

The Illini love to run-and-gun. Quick 3s and attacks in transition are preferred, and we saw that often with Matthew Mayer against Indiana. The Baylor transfer…