Rosenthal: Overloaded with star prospects, Orioles need to determine how to

SARASOTA, Fla. — At some point, the Orioles need to lift off. That’s the phrase general manager Mike Elias used after last year’s trade deadline, isn’t it? Elias says he wasn’t referring to a payroll increase, just the team’s rising fortunes. Well, the Orioles’ moves last offseason were not exactly the type to propel a rocket. To achieve true liftoff, they will need to stop idling their engines and pump more financial fuel into the product.

I’m not necessarily talking about a free-agent rush, the kind the Orioles shunned last offseason, preferring inexpensive one-year guarantees for right-hander Kyle Gibson, second baseman Adam Frazier and reliever Mychal Givens to more significant investments in say, right-hander Chris Bassitt and first baseman/DH Josh Bell. I’ll grant the Orioles the excuse their limited market provides, even as the Padres’ spending embarrasses them and every other supposedly disadvantaged club.

Elias has other means at his disposal — specifically, a farm system strong enough for the Orioles to acquire virtually any player they want at the trade deadline. Think Corbin Burnes. Think Bryan Reynolds. Think of any quality player under control beyond the 2023 season. The Orioles, forgive me for slipping into executive-speak, have the “prospect capital” to go get such a player. At some point, they will need to “consolidate their assets.”

Not normally given to hyperbole, Elias says the Orioles’ top 10 prospects are “the deepest I’ve been around” — no small statement from an executive who, during his time in the Astros’ front office, played a major role in building a system that produced Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr., Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker. But knowing what he knows, seeing what he is seeing in spring training, Elias is bullish on the major-league team’s fortunes as well.

“In our division, it’s hard to pencil yourself into the postseason,” he says. “But we’re going to be right there in the thick of things.”

The projection systems do not agree. PECOTA sees the Orioles as a last-place, 74-win team, six games behind the Red Sox in the AL East. Fangraphs has them at 77 wins, just one game behind the Red Sox. Even that win total would represent a six-game regression from last season, when the Orioles produced their first winning campaign since 2016, despite trading first baseman/DH Trey Mancini and closer Jorgé López at the deadline.

Maybe the projections for the Orioles would be stronger if Elias had followed through on his pledge last August to “significantly escalate the payroll.” The Orioles did “escalate,” relatively speaking, jumping from $43.7 million last Opening Day to a projected $63 million. Still, only the A’s are currently lower.

So, what happened during the offseason? Why didn’t the Orioles go further than signing Gibson, Frazier and Givens for a combined $23 million and trading for left-hander…