Should the Wizards punt on the Play-In chase and aim to improve their lottery

WASHINGTON — It’s the question on many Washington Wizards’ fans minds.

Should the team strive to lose its remaining seven games?

And it’s one of the questions you asked me for The Athletic’s Wizards mailbag.

Let’s get right to it.

(Author’s note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity, grammar and spelling.)

In your opinion, do you think the Wizards should focus on player development the last few games or push for the Play-In? –@Ye_Biz

I’ll state it bluntly: The Wizards would put themselves in better position for the long run if they lose all seven of their remaining games and finish the season 33-49. I agree with my friend David Aldridge on this.

Currently at 33-42 and entering Monday tied for the league’s seventh-worst record, the Wizards cannot pass the Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs or Charlotte Hornets on the way to the bottom. The Hornets have the league’s fourth-worst record, and even if the Hornets win all of their remaining games and the Wizards lose all of their remaining games, the Wizards cannot finish the season with a worse record than the Hornets.

But Washington can finish with the league’s fifth-worst record — and there would be value to that in the NBA Draft Lottery.

The chart below shows how the lottery percentages break down, without ties in teams’ records, for the teams with the fifth-, sixth-, seventh- and eighth-worst records, as outlined on the website Tankathon. The team with the fifth-worst record will enter the lottery with a 42.1 percent likelihood of winning a top-four pick. For illustration’s sake, the team with the eighth-worst record will have a 26.2 percent likelihood of winning a top-four pick.

Where the differences in odds really get scary is on the back end of those teams’ probable draft outcomes. The fifth-worst team most likely will receive the sixth pick (19.6 percent) or the seventh pick (26.7 percent). The eighth-worst team cannot draft fifth, sixth or seventh — and is most likely to garner the eighth pick (34.5 percent) or the ninth pick (32.1). That, arguably, is the most substantial concern: that the Wizards finish with the eighth- or ninth-worst record and wind up drafting eighth, ninth or 10th.

What you’re really asking is this: To what degree, if any, should Wizards management and coaches go to ensure they lose their remaining games?

I would suggest the Wizards continue to sit Bradley Beal, Kyle Kuzma and Monté Morris and also start sitting Kristaps Porziņģis and Delon Wright for the remainder of…