LeBrun: Maple Leafs or Lightning? Rival coaches, execs break down the matchup

TORONTO — A year ago, it truly felt like a flip of a coin. And it went seven games to prove that prognosis was correct. It was a close series by any definition.

But the Lightning–Maple Leafs playoff sequel has a different feel.

Toronto, after finishing 13 points ahead of Tampa Bay in the 2022-23 standings, is legitimately favored this time, for whatever that carries in the crazy world known as the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Does the NHL community buy it?

I reached out to rival front-office executives and head coaches across the NHL this weekend and asked them to break down the Tampa Bay-Toronto series and pick a winner.

Here’s what they’re saying.

(Note: Some responses have been edited lightly for clarity.)

Head coach No. 1

I think Toronto wins the series. They have learned to play much more of a winning brand of hockey, more complete. They looked different last year when they lost to Tampa in the playoffs, and I thought they turned the corner. Plus, losing (Tanner) Jeannot really hurts Tampa. I think it goes seven and Toronto wins. Playing them this year was a lot more difficult than (in) previous years, and I don’t think Sheldon (Keefe) gets enough credit.

Head coach No. 2

Will be a great series. Tampa has great experience, talent, fierce competitors and great goaltending. Toronto has learned some tough lessons with a young core. But after last year’s playoffs, they seemed to take a step in playoff hockey and what it requires to win. They have elite talent that competes, and they have added some good players to complement the core guys.

Will be a great series. Could come down to goaltending.

(He picked Toronto.)

Head coach No. 3

Leafs in 6. Tampa looks tired. They are a slower team this year, and the loss of McDonough was bigger than they thought, as their back end is not nearly as good. Leafs are way deeper and have more skill and depth. I would say Leafs in 5, but 88 steals 1 more.

Head coach No. 4

(I’m picking) Toronto. Because I think a big step in the playoffs is (the) battle scar and urgency to win. I think the key moment for Tampa is when it lost against Columbus and were expecting to win. After that, they came back with the urgency.

Same for Colorado. When they lost against Vegas, they were stunned. That sparked their urgency. It’s what they needed.

I think that is the special ingredient championship teams need at the NHL level.

Head coach No. 5

I think Toronto wins in seven games because they have more speed in the bottom-six forwards and also generally as a team. But wouldn’t be shocked if Tampa won either.

Front-office exec No. 1

I’m going with Toronto. This is the year they break through. I like their additions up front in (Ryan) O’Reilly, (Noel) Acciari, (Sam) Lafferty and (Matthew) Knies. Their backend is deeper than ever. And (Ilya) Samsonov has had an underrated year with no ties to the past playoff failures. Tampa has a lot of miles on that core, which can be good (playoff success/experience)…