Big 12 college football preview, part 2 – OU and Texas say goodbye

When Oklahoma and Texas leave the Big 12 for the SEC next year, it will obviously impact ticket sales for their soon-to-be former conference mates. The conference’s new media rights deal, though solid, doesn’t have quite the same ceiling as it would have with its longtime big dogs.

On the field, though, the conference has already moved on. Texas hasn’t made the Big 12 championship since 2018, and while OU enjoyed a late-2010s dynasty, winning six straight conference titles from 2015 to ’20, the Sooners have fallen short of the title game for two straight years. In the absence of either the Sooners or Longhorns, four different teams have taken part in two absolute classics — Baylor‘s 21-16, by-a-millimeter win over Oklahoma State in 2021 and Kansas State‘s overtime victory over TCU last December.

This could be the new normal: two teams using the kiss of the close-games god to prevail over loads of similarly talented (and monied) teams, then putting on a classic at Jerry World in Arlington, Texas. There are worse fates. But before the two blueblood programs leave, they’re going to try to lord over the Big 12 one last time. Texas and OU are both projected in the top 15 in both SP+ and FPI, and either or both could put together a gaudy record if they’re able to make peace with the aforementioned god of close games.

In games decided by more than one score last year (excluding their lopsided game against each other), the Horns and Sooners went a combined 11-1. That’s customary of good teams. But in one-score finishes? They were an incredible 2-10. The wackiness of their final Big 12 title race could come down to just how much they progress toward the mean in these games.

Last week we previewed the seven Big 12 teams that live outside of Oklahoma or Texas. Now let’s talk about the conference’s geographical heart.

Every week through the offseason, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 133 FBS teams. The previews will include 2022 breakdowns, 2023 previews and burning questions for each team.