F1 will be better off if it fears a popularity decline

Yes, Formula 1 fell off, and yes, it is because your favourite driver and/or team aren’t getting the results and/or treatment they deserve. We have fact-checked it, and it is 100% true.

OK, yes, “sarcasm is the lowest form of wit”. Guilty as charged. But all that might well be true. It could at least be part-true. And it’s certainly a more revealing position on the question than what I can actually offer – which is: is Formula 1 in worrying decline? It’s way too early to tell; and what’s causing any decline? A multitude of factors. Those answers might as well be a pair of shrug emojis.

A report released by UK marketing and analytics company Buzz Radar did offer two concrete answers. F1 disputes these – but what can’t be disputed is that the ‘white paper’ being published has been hugely insightful in an indirect way. In that the conclusion reached by Buzz Radar is one that clearly resonated with a lot of people, to the point of effectively making it open season on F1’s shortcomings, kicking off its version of Festivus – the Seinfeld-popularised holiday of the “airing of grievances”.

Is it something for F1 to take note of? Certainly. Is it something for F1 to hugely worry about? I wouldn’t be so sure. The only meaningful conclusion I’d be definitively willing to draw is an ’emotional truth’ rather than anything data-originated – the truth that maybe it’d be better for F1 fans if the championship was indeed feeling a decline in reach and engagement as a consequence of its current product.

The buzz-making report

The report by Buzz Radar, a High Wycombe, UK-registered data analysis company but also one made up of “huge motorsport fans”, is based around a central thesis of ‘peak F1’ having been reached.

“Using AI pattern detection and predictive intelligence, our team can determine, with a strong degree of confidence, that 2022 was peak in F1 popularity for the foreseeable future, and we are now on a downward trajectory,” its report says.

“We predict a steady decline in F1 interest online until the domination of Max Verstappen and Red Bull ends, and competition closes up.

“Our predictive model estimates that F1 could lose as much as 50% of the new audience it has gained by 2024 if the same driver continues to dominate the sport.”

These are bold claims, some of them particularly so, with that 50% estimation a particular eyebrow-raiser for this author – ultimately a layman in this topic with only a basic statistical analysis education.

The evidence provided by Buzz Radar is what it describes as “significant drops in the overall mentions of F1” and “dismal numbers of new followers of high-profile accounts” – though the specific figures it cites are a comparison of January-May 2022 and January-May 2023, which feels worthy of a sample size expansion given the F1 season starts in March.

The report also uses online conversation analysis to assert that fans are a lot more bored by F1 this year, but that conversation has grown a lot more “passionate” in…