Pegula, Sabalenka look for quick starts

CANCUN, Mexico — A year ago in Fort Worth, playing their first WTA Finals, Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula struggled.

They both lost their three singles matches and went 0-3 as doubles partners. Gauff lost in straight sets to Daria Kasatkina, Caroline Garcia and Iga Swiatek, while Pegula managed only a single set against Aryna Sabalenka, Maria Sakkari and Ons Jabeur. And while they were Top 10 players all, those results were disappointing for the Americans.

“I think last year we were really burnt out,” Pegula told reporters Saturday at the GNP Seguros WTA Finals Cancun. “It was probably an accumulation of doing a lot with singles and doubles, coming up along the end of the year, having a good year, but sometimes you’re not used to having that consistent, full year.

“I think we feel better this year. I have mentally prepared myself a little bit better on what to expect coming in here. Now that it’s not my first Finals, I know what to expect, I know what’s going to happen. Hopefully, I can use that as better preparation this year mentally and physically and have some better results.”

On Sunday, Day 1 of the WTA Finals, the four singles players from the Bacalar Group, including No.1-ranked Sabalenka, are all in action.

[4] Elena Rybakina vs. [5] Jessica Pegula

The case for Rybakina: Of the Elite Eight in Cancun, no one has a better winning percentage against Top 10 players this year than Rybakina — she’s 6-2, with both losses coming after winning the opening set, to Sabalenka (Australian Open final) and Jabeur (Wimbledon quarterfinal).

In the year-end finals, where the margins are thinner against top players, the serve might be the most essential tool in the bag. Rybakina has fashioned the best ace-to-double fault differential among all players, nearly plus-five. Only Garcia — last year’s WTA Finals champion in Fort Worth — is over four.

With breezy, seaside conditions, Estadio Paradisus will offer stout challenges for her greatest weapon.

“I will need to adjust because the wind is quite heavy,” Rybakina told reporters. “I don’t know how it’s going to be on the matches. We are all in the same conditions, it’s just a question of how good are going to be the matches.

“For sure I’m going to stick to my game. I’m going to try to still play aggressive.”

The case for Pegula: No Hologic WTA Tour player has been better on hard courts this year. Pegula has set the mark at 41 matches, two hard-court titles in Montreal and Seoul.

There are three other historical reasons to like Pegula in this one.

First, she holds a 2-1 head-to-head advantage over Rybakina, winning both 2022 matches and losing this year in Miami. Second, there’s something about Mexico — she’s 5-0 in WTA main-draw matches in Mexico, winning the title in Guadalajara last year. Third, she’s been on something of a tear against Top 10 players, winning three straight, against Gauff and Swiatek in Montreal, and Sakkari in…