Rosenthal: Jackson Chourio’s pending extension, plus Josh Hader’s potential

The average fan will react to outfielder Jackson Chourio’s pending eight-year, $82 million contract with the Brewers and say, “Pretty good deal!” And it is.

Chourio is 19. He has yet to play a single game in the majors. And his guarantee is a major step beyond the previous record for a player with zero service time, the six-year $50 million contract the White Sox awarded outfielder Luis Robert Jr. in Jan. 2020.

Yet, the usual questions will arise in the wake of Chourio’s deal, which is expected to be announced at next week’s Winter Meetings. The questions will be less about the Brewers’ risk in committing to one of the game’s top prospects, and more about the money Chourio potentially is sacrificing by jumping into such a deal.

The Chourio contract, according to sources, will include two club options, each valued at $25 million. Escalators based on MVP votes will push the potential value to about $142 million. And even if the Brewers exercise the options, Chourio will be a free agent before turning 30.

Bryce Harper earned slightly more than $142 million by the same age. The difference is that Harper hit the open market entering his age 26 season. He was through four years of his 13-year, $330 million free-agent deal with the Phillies when he turned 30.

Even without knowing his family circumstances, it’s easy to understand why Chourio, a native of Maracaibo, Venezuela, agreed to his new deal. Few among us would turn down lifetime security at such a young age, particularly when a second, much larger contract will be within reach if Chourio fulfills expectations. But here’s the thing: Chourio likely would have struck it rich regardless, and perhaps even richer by waiting nine months, a year, two years.

The Mariners’ Julio Rodríguez signed a 12-year, $210 million contract in August of his rookie season, the largest for a player with less than a year of service. Corbin Carroll, after what was essentially a successful September callup, agreed to an eight-year, $111 million deal, the largest for a player with less than 100 days service.

Heck, those two players also could have waited longer. For an elite position player, the risk in going year to year is simply not all that great. As an example, consider the difference between Ronald Acuña Jr. and Juan Soto, both of whom arrived in the majors early enough in the 2018 season to be eligible for a fourth year of arbitration.

Acuña signed an eight-year, $100 million extension in April 2019, just 115 games into his major-league career. Two years later, he suffered a torn right ACL, the kind of catastrophic injury players and agents sometimes cite when rationalizing their acceptance of below-market extensions.

The injury sidelined Acuña for the second half of the 2021 season and hindered him in ‘22, but he got back on track with a spectacular MVP season in ‘23. If he had gone year to year, he almost certainly would have hit the jackpot as a free agent after ‘24….