New Cuban Prospect on the Market, IFA Considerations, Spending and

On Dec 26, 2023

I hope everyone had a happy Christmas day with friends and family and cookies. I ate so much. And I plan to eat more today. It’s still a special occasion …

Uh, 16 and already throwing 93 mph?!?! I am instantly over-the-moon. I wonder which teams still have some funds uncommitted for the upcoming IFA class, which opens on January 15:

Cuban RHP Yosniel Menéndez (16) was declared free agent by the MLB Commisioner’s Office, per sources.

Member of the Cuban National team in the U-15 World Cup.

FB: 93 MPH
CH: 82-83 MPH
CV: 79-80 MPH pic.twitter.com/AZAxY86pCn— Francys Romero (@francysromeroFR) December 23, 2023

It is our understanding that the Cubs’ IFA pool is more or less all committed at this point, with the vast majority going to one of the best in the class, Dominican shortstop Fernando Cruz. There was a report earlier this offseason that mistakenly attached Cruz to the White Sox, which was corrected, but the interesting (concerning?) thing was that that bonus reported at the same time was just $1 million. That’s dramatically less than Cruz was rumored/expected to get from the Cubs (more like four times that amount), and if it were true, it would mean that something very serious happened to drop his bonus precipitously – teams don’t just do that. So his stock as a prospect would, by extrapolation, take a huge hit. So, that is to say, I really hope the rumored dollar amount was also a mistake in that report, even if it would leave the Cubs with a ton of extra IFA pool space to go after someone like Menendez. Cruz was supposed to be an absolute stud, and I’d like to still be the case.

As of April, the Cruz bonus was reportedly going to be around $4 million, and the Cubs’ bonus pool is about $5.15 million. I doubt that would leave enough to sign a surprisingly-available potential stud player like Menendez, especially considering the Cubs have probably already committed to more prospects than just Cruz. Then again, pitching prospects in IFA always get much less than their positional counterparts because of the greater uncertainty in the development of a 16-year-old arm. And then again-again, bonus pool money is tradable.

A related consideration: I wonder what happens with Roki Sasaki, who reportedly could be posted after this season, but would still be subject to IFA bonus pools. Most clubs would’ve long had their dollars committed at that point – do some break deals to hold open funds for Sasaki just in case? Would a couple million bucks even matter to him if he’s coming over at this point? Does any of this matter, since he’s clearly going to sign with the Dodgers?

I don’t think Dan is entirely wrong in his point here, but I think this chart demonstrates more than he’s saying:

Remember: the design of baseball as a sport with volatile outcomes results in built-in parity.

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Read More: New Cuban Prospect on the Market, IFA Considerations, Spending and 2023-12-26 14:07:13

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