2023-24 NHL prediction contest midseason check-in: We are not smart, and other

Every year, right before opening night, I run a prediction contest for the upcoming NHL season. And two things always end up being true: The questions seem very easy at the time, and everyone does terribly.

That “everyone” includes me, by the way — I’m not any better at this than all of you are. The lesson is that none of us know anything. Or maybe it’s that the NHL product is more unpredictable than any of us give it credit for, throwing us constant twists and turns and unexpected swerves to keep us guessing all year long. And also, none of us know anything.

Today, we’re going to do the annual midseason check-in and see how we’re all doing. Spoiler: Not great!

If you’d like a refresher, you can find the original 2023-24 contest post here, along with the roughly 2,000 entries in the comments section. A summary of the consensus, in which nobody understood the Bruins, followed here. But that was all months ago, and a lot has happened since, so let’s see where we’re at.

This year’s contest featured 10 standard questions, plus the dreaded all-or-nothing bonus. If you like feeling smart, this is your last chance to look away.

1. Name up to five teams that will make the playoffs.

This one isn’t looking great, but it’s trending in the right direction.

Your top two picks were the Hurricanes and the Oilers, both of whom have struggled to live up to expectations. Neither looks like a completely safe bet, and the Oilers still have little margin for error after their awful start. But both teams are north of 90 percent in Dom’s projections, so at this point, you should be OK.

The next three teams were the Maple Leafs, Stars and Avalanche, who all seem safe. But almost half of you picked the Devils, another underachieving team that’s barely been holding down a wild-card spot. Dom’s model has them around 60 percent, making them the biggest risk among the consensus picks.

By the way, among teams running north of a 95 percent chance, there was barely any support for the Kings (43 entries), Bruins (40), Canucks (3) or Jets (2). Yes, the Canucks and Jets had just five mentions between them, less combined support than individual teams like the Senators or Sabres. We’re all very smart.

2. Name up to five teams that will not make the playoffs.

Seven teams ate up most of the attention here, and five of them are already safe picks: The Sharks, Ducks, Habs, Hawks and Blue Jackets are the five least likely playoff teams in the league, according to Dom.

But the Coyotes, who showed up on over 500 entries? They’ve been surprisingly feisty and could make a run at a wild-card spot if things break just right. And the big story in this category is the Flyers, who were named almost 1,500 times and are holding down a spot at the midway mark. Plenty of us are waiting for the inevitable collapse, and maybe it still arrives….