College Basketball Betting Splits Handicapping Concepts

College Basketball Betting Splits Handicapping Concepts

Over the last year or so, I have habitually studied the DraftKings Betting Splits data on VSiN for several different sports. I have tried to keep VSiN readers up to speed on the strategies and concepts of using the data. I’ve done this through various articles and as part of our daily/weekly Analytics Reports. Until now, however, I hadn’t been able to analyze the data for college basketball, as before the 2023-24 season, we hadn’t collected enough results to make it worth studying. However, with the football season now in the rearview mirror and some valuable analytics time once again available, I made it my first order of business to attack the DK college basketball betting splits. I’m here to share what I found, and believe me when I say that what I have found is worth the read for any level of college basketball bettor.

To summarize the season findings in games up through Sunday, 2/11, the data sample contained 4,086 games, and the majority of bettors are losing money in every major category or essentially have a negative return on investment (ROI). These are the current results:

• Majority handle on point spreads: 1977-1970 ATS (50.1%), -190 UNITS, ROI -4.8%
• Majority number of bets on point spreads: 1959-1976 ATS (49.8%), -214.6 UNITS, ROI -5.5%
• Majority handle on moneylines: 2718-1095 (71.3%). -364.57 UNITS, ROI -9.6%
• Majority number of bets on moneylines: 2768-1056 (72.5%). -343.84 UNITS, ROI -9%
• Majority handle on totals: 2000-1988 (50.2%). -186.8 UNITS, ROI -4.7%
• Majority number of bets on totals: 1995-1970 (50.3%), -172 UNITS, ROI -4.3%

If you’re wondering why the results don’t add up to 4,086 games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, and there were several ATS ties already in the season.

These numbers are collectively a great indication of why the “house always wins.” From a generic sense, this is a lot of games, and at -4.7% or worse ROI, bettors are slowly drained of their bankrolls.

This is the first study of this kind for any sports in which all major categories showed money losses. Does that mean there is never a reason in which bettors utilizing this data should follow the majorities? Of course not, and I will share some specific instances later in the systems in which the public bettors have done well. However, I would say that just blindly following a fade or follow strategy of the majorities won’t get you very far.

Why is this Betting Splits information so valuable? Well, most specifically, it lets us see which games are the most publicly supported each day or week. The common belief is that the “betting public” does not win over the long haul, and with the amount of money DK spends on acquiring customers, you have to assume that most of the bettors that play there would be considered “public”. In other words, the collective opinions of this group of recreational…