Will it really be ‘Georgia and everyone else’ this season in college football?

The Georgia fan base lost one of its best last week when Michael Brochstein, aka Senator Blutarsky, who ran the Get the Picture blog, passed away. For more than a decade, it was the smartest, most prolific entry in the blogosphere, and listing all the ways the Senator was a must-read would fill up this column.

But one thing to know: He loved Bill Connelly.

Connelly is one of college football’s leading analytics experts, doing his SP+ projections first for SBNation and now for ESPN. And when Connelly released his pre-spring 2024 projections on Wednesday, one couldn’t help but think of the Senator and how he would have reacted to it. Particularly given the way Connelly summarized his findings.

“It’s Georgia and everyone else,” he wrote.

We can think of no better tribute to Brochstein than to offer up a rebuttal column. And so let’s do that.

It’s not so much a refutation as a caution. On paper, Georgia should be the preseason favorite. It returns its starting quarterback, both coordinators and 16 of the starters from its most recent game, a 63-3 demolition of Florida State in the Orange Bowl.

Brock Bowers is a big loss. But Georgia did play four games without its star tight end last season, including the Orange Bowl.

The defense is also a question, with three starters departing from the secondary, ongoing concern about the pass rush and the run defense showing signs of vulnerability last season. But this is still a Kirby Smart defense. And even if the defense is merely good next year, as it was merely good last year, the offense looks like it should be very good, as it was very good last year.

The offense, in fact, could be special. Carson Beck in his second year as starting quarterback. Trevor Etienne imported from Florida to lead the rushing attack. A deep group of receivers in Dillon Bell, Rara Thomas, Dominic Lovett, Arian Smith, London Humphreys, Colbie Young — so many guys that the tight ends (Oscar Delp, Lawson Luckie, Ben Yurosek) don’t have to replace Bowers’ production by themselves. And they’ll receive blocks from four returning starters on the line from the bowl game, the exception being at center, but the fact Jared Wilson is already the heir apparent at that position is a great sign.

OK, so where’s the actual pushback to 2024 being “Georgia and everyone else”?

The schedule, for one thing. Road games at Texas, Alabama and Ole Miss, three teams in Connelly’s top 10. Never mind the other tests (the opener against Clemson in Atlanta, the road trip to Kentucky), those three trips alone are enough to give anyone pause.

The assumption is Georgia, with that schedule, will skate into the 12-team field as long as it’s 10-2, and maybe even at 9-3. But that’s only looking at it in a vacuum, without knowing what the rest of the field looks like. I think Georgia would get in at 10-2, but that will still require winning one of those three road games, then going 9-0 against the rest of the schedule….