Steven Stamkos contract projection: How much would it take to land the Lightning

TAMPA, Fla. — When Steven Stamkos listed the most important factors in what could be his last free agency, there were a few no-brainers.

“At the end of the day, winning still fuels me,” Stamkos said.

So being a part of that culture is key, and Stamkos still believes the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Stanley Cup window is open.

But life is much different for the 34-year-old now compared to his last free-agent sweepstakes in 2016. He’s a father of two.

“The decision is more than just me now,” he said.

Stamkos wants to stay. He hopes to play his entire career in one organization. That legacy means something.

But you know what Stamkos didn’t bring up in Wednesday’s exit interview press conference?

Money.

That always matters in contract negotiations, and this will likely be no different. As much as Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois declared he’s “very hopeful” to re-sign Stamkos, the key question is how much Tampa Bay will be willing to pay the face of its franchise.

How much can the Lightning pay him?

This is part of the reason Tampa Bay put off contract talks with Stamkos until after this season. BriseBois wanted as much time as possible to evaluate what kind of team he has and what needs he might have, knowing he wants to surround Stamkos with pieces fit for a contender.

“It was about getting as much information as possible,” BriseBois said. “These are big decisions. We want to stay competitive. We have a nucleus of really good players. We have a great coaching staff. We’ve built a really strong culture. It takes time to accumulate all these pieces to get to the point where we are now. We want to extend that as much as possible.

“In a world where cap space is limited and comes premium, you have to make wise decisions. You’re not going to bat a thousand. The more information you have before making the decisions, the better the decisions should be.”

The Lightning want to re-sign cornerstones Stamkos and Victor Hedman (a 2025 unrestricted free agent), but the price and the term will be crucial in continuing to build a Cup contender around them. A million or two might not seem like much, but this team has been in a cap crunch for more than five years.

Stamkos, who took a below-market salary on his now-expiring eight-year, $8.5 million average-annual-value deal, would likely have to take a hometown discount to stay. But he won’t, nor should he, be a bargain. He is still a 41-goal scorer and top power-play weapon, not to mention the most vocal leader on the team.

As former teammate Alex Killorn put it, as a prideful player, you want to feel respected. You want to feel wanted.

So what could a potential Stamkos contract with the Lightning look like? Could we see something similar to the legacy-type deal given to Los Angeles Kings captain Anze Kopitar last year; a two-year, $7 million AAV contract? Would Stamkos be open to a three-year, $5.5 million deal?

Let’s break down Stamkos’ value and possible contract…