The CFP Is Supposed to Feature ‘The Four Best Teams,’ But Will It?

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — “So you’re saying there’s a chance?” has been the mantra here for more than a month. Ever since the the Alabama Crimson Tide took its second loss, with both having been on the final play of a game in an insane atmosphere, crimson and white fans have hoping, but not believing. Not really.

One can’t blame them. A two-loss team has never made the College Football Playoff. A lot had to fall into place for Alabama to even have a shot, never mind a semifinal spot, and a lot did. So there’s been hope, yet still plenty of doubt. 

Even one evening two weeks after a group from BamaCentral decorated our tree as part of Tuscaloosa’s holiday Tinsel Trail, complete with a Nick Saban straw hat on top, someone couldn’t help but ask, “You don’t really think Alabama can still make the playoff, do you?”

“Absolutely,” was my response because I had essentially seen it before, both in 2011 and 2012, when the Crimson Tide won back-to-back national titles during the Bowl Championship Series era. 

In 2011, when Alabama lost the Game of the Century to LSU, 9-6 in overtime, Oklahoma State moved ahead of it in the rankings, while Stanford and Boise State lurked, still undefeated. They all lost, the Cowboys famously at Iowa State, and the rematch with the Tigers was on. 

A year later, Alabama was playing back-to-back-to-back games against teams ranked in the top 15, and stumbled over the final hurdle, Texas A&M. 

The Crimson Tide subsequently dropped from No. 1 to No. 4, and over the next three weeks needed two teams ahead of it to falter to secure a spot in the BCS championship. They did, just seven days later: No. 1 Kansas State at Baylor, and No. 2 Oregon to Stanford in overtime. 

The lesson learned was don’t ever count on teams winning out, especially when they aren’t used to being in that kind spotlight.

Ten years later, here we are again, only this time it’s a little different. Back then, Alabama fans knew they were in. This time, they don’t.  

After Championship Weekend, everyone’s resumes are complete, there are no more qualifying games to play. Undefeated Georgia and Michigan are clearly the top two seeds in the four-team College Football Playoff, and deservedly so.  

Behind them, though, is an epic logjam, with four teams that have good arguments, yet only two will secure spots in the semifinals. The College Football Playoff Selection Committee has to pick between Alabama, Ohio State, TCU, Tennessee and USC to fill out the field, and can pretty much justify whatever pairings it wants. 

We’ll start with the latter two.

USC played its way out of contention with the 47-24 loss to Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game. At 11-2, the Trojans went 2-2 against ranked teams and are without a win against a team better than No. 15 at the time. 

Tennessee (10-2) is also out of the running thanks to the 63-38 loss at South Carolina. Chair Boo Corrigan has made that pretty clear. 

So it’s really down to TCU, Ohio State and Alabama, and that was…