Can Lukas Van Ness Follow the Trend of Second-Year Sack Breakouts?

In recent league history, players who ascend to the upper echelon of pass rushers usually make a solid case for inclusion in that group by their second season. There are certainly some exceptions. However, looking across the landscape of the league, many of the sack leaders are hitting double digits by his second season. Lukas Van Ness turned the corner after a quiet first 10 weeks but finished with just four sacks on his 2023 ledger. If Van Ness wants to find himself in the mix among the league’s best, his sophomore campaign would be an excellent time to start making that case.

After a memorable chase-down sack of Justin Fields in his first-ever NFL game, Van Ness battled through the next two months without much statistical success. As was the case for much of Green Bay’s 2023 roster, the Thanksgiving Day win over the Detroit Lions proved to be a turning point for Van Ness. The rookie’s impressive second half of the season sets the table for his sophomore season under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. Van Ness had a pair of quarterback hits in each of the season-changing back-to-back wins over Detroit and Kansas City and recorded three of his four regular-season sacks over his final seven games.

While no one is ranking Van Ness among the best pass rushers in the league just yet, it’s a consistent trend that the preeminent sack artists in the NFL were already a force by their second season, barring injury. T.J. Watt had 13 sacks in his second season after tallying seven in his first. Maxx Crosby and Josh Hines-Allen each had 10 sacks as a rookie, while Bradley Chubb had a dozen. Nick Bosa went for 15.5 sacks, Khalil Mack had 15, Myles Garrett had 13.5 sacks, and Danielle Hunter had 12.5 sacks in their second season of play.

There are certainly some exceptions. Trey Hendrickson was second in the league last year with 17.5 sacks, but he didn’t get to double digits until his fourth season, and that was also the case for Demarcus Lawrence and Haason Reddick. Van Ness’ teammate Rashan Gary has flirted with double digits with 9.5 and nine sack seasons. However, for players whose sole responsibility is to get after the quarterback, it often happens earlier rather than later.

Even as a first-round pick, Van Ness didn’t enter the league with the same expectations as some of the names above him, even though his raw ability is on par with most of that group. Van Ness talked late in the season about the changes he had to continually make throughout his rookie year and how they began to pay off as the weather got colder.

“I think it just shows what the rookie season is,” Van Ness said in January before Green Bay’s playoff game against San Francisco. “Coming from Iowa and playing interior D-line and a lot of different techniques, to come into Green Bay and change up my technique and learning a different defense, I had a lot of hurdles to get over. I felt like, especially the last month or two, I’ve been able to put together and play a lot more free.”

A full NFL offseason will allow Van Ness to continue adding technique to his freakish athleticism. With the combination of new defensive coordinator Hafley and veterans such as Gary and Preston Smith to lean on, Van Ness will have plenty of chances to approach that double-digit sack total. NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks tagged Van Ness as one of the defensive ends on his All-Breakout Team, citing Hafley’s “see ball, get ball” approach to defense that will be looking for difference-makers like Van Ness to step up.

Sacks aren’t the only measure for a successful season as an edge rusher, but there’s a strong correlation between a double-digit sack year and a strong season. Van Ness is not lacking any of the physical tools required for the position, and there’s no better time than the present for the second-year edge rusher to make a statement around the league.