Jack Miller future, could he be demoted for Pedro Acosta early, KTM, 2025 rider market,

Ducati-Ducati-Ducati. Say it once, for the bikes used by the three riders who finished on the podium at last weekend’s German Grand Prix. Then say it five more times, for the bikes used by the three rostrum finishers in all five races in Spain, France, Catalunya, Italy and the Netherlands that preceded MotoGP’s annual sojourn to the Sachsenring.

With eight bikes on the grid compared to four (or, in Yamaha’s case, two) for its rival manufacturers, Ducati has the statistical probability to populate the MotoGP podium. But it’s more than simply being a case of strength in numbers for the fastest bike in MotoGP. More machinery and more speed means Ducati only has intermittent competition as it dominates the world championship for a second straight year.

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What – or who – could be the antidote to that imbalance? It might rest on the narrow shoulders of a rider barely seven weeks out of his teens.

Pedro Acosta’s rookie season riding a KTM RC16 for the Austrian brand’s second-tier Tech3 GasGas team was so good initially that the Spaniard was being spoken about as the best debutant since the likes of Jorge Lorenzo, Marc Marquez and Dani Pedrosa – that is, the best ever.

And while Acosta’s results have regressed slightly since in the wake of Ducati’s relentless onslaught, KTM’s best chance to emerge from the pack to be Ducati’s primary challenger in the future involves getting its best rider into its factory team in place of Jack Miller.

Not next year, as planned. Right now.

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That’s the view of Simon Patterson, of the most prominent members of MotoGP’s international press pack; harsh as it sounds to bin off Miller with half of 2024 remaining, Patterson believes KTM getting a running start on its 2025 quest to unseat Ducati from its throne of dominance can only be of benefit. Acosta is that good.

Given Miller was told he’d be replaced by Acosta for 2025 at the Italian Grand Prix – and snubbed for Enea Bastianini and Maverick Vinales at Tech3 soon after – he’s already been very publicly dismissed as being surplus to needs for both KTM-run squads. Why, Patterson argues, delay the inevitable and give yourself a steeper mountain to climb next season?

“For me, that’s what it fundamentally comes down to – this kid [Acosta] has the potential to be a championship contender as soon as next year, so you give him every advantage you can to try to make that happen as soon as you can,” he says.

“It doesn’t cost you anything to do it, so why wouldn’t you? What possible reason is there for not doing it, apart from maybe the fact that it’ll make you look bad if you shift Jack? But this is KTM, and they have a long history of making themselves look bad …

“I can’t see any reason why you’d continue with the Jack project, knowing that it’s over and knowing that it hasn’t achieved what it was set out to achieve, and knowing that Acosta is sitting there ready to go and could make the benefit from learning the [factory] squad and learning development.

“He’s so fast, but at the same time he’s so young that he’s not done that yet. He could do that this year, not have to spend the first part of 2025 getting his head around that.”

CONTRACTUAL, STATISTICAL CASES FOR CHANGE

Given Acosta’s glittering junior-class CV – and that Miller’s teammate Brad Binder was already locked away until the end of 2026 by KTM last season – the Australian was always fighting a losing battle to keep his seat for next year; the optics of Acosta tussling with Marquez for fourth on his Grand Prix debut in Qatar in March while Miller trundled around at the back after crashing was the worst possible first impression, and Acosta’s inevitable ascension for 2025 was announced at Mugello in June.

Given KTM’s historical penchant for eschewing sentimentality when it comes to its rider line-up, the fact the Acosta/Miller swap hasn’t already happened is something of a surprise. KTM motorsport director Pit Beirer was questioned on the possibility of an exchange between the GasGas and factory KTM teams as early as round three in Austin, but shot the story down – while revealing the ability to do just that.

“Pedro’s achievements are an absolute highlight but no, that is not an option for us,” Beirer told German publication Motorsport Magazin.

“All four of our riders in MotoGP have factory contracts, so you are not tied to a specific team. From a contractual point of view, there is no hurdle to changing anything. It is still completely absurd to think about such changes during the season.”

Statistically at least, there’s every justification for making an in-season switch despite Beirer’s denial. Miller could have repeated last year’s 11th-place championship finish and it still likely wouldn’t have been enough, but equally has done himself few favours with his worst season since 2016.

When you consider Miller has more MotoGP seasons (10) than Acosta has Grands Prix (nine) on his CV, 2024 serves up a brutal set of statistics.

Acosta vs. Miller, 2024

Points: Acosta 110 (6th in world championship), Miller 35 (16th)

Points in sprint races: Acosta 38, Miller 13

Points in Grands Prix: Acosta 72, Miller 22

Best sprint race result: Acosta 2nd (Spain), Miller 5th (Portugal)

Best Grand Prix result: Acosta 2nd (Americas), Miller 5th (Portugal)

Qualifying head-to-head: Acosta 8, Miller 1

Sprint race head-to-head: Acosta 7, Miller 2

Grand Prix head-to-head: Acosta 5, Miller 0

Acosta’s advantage in Grands Prix: 31.166secs (Qatar), 11.075secs (Portugal), 22.283secs (Americas), 20.916secs (Italy), 10.679secs (Germany)

(Miller crashed and didn’t finish in Spain, France and Catalunya; Acosta did likewise in the Netherlands)

SWITCH MIGHT HURT, YET HELP MILLER’S CAUSE

Might leaving Miller to see out his time at KTM where he is – while keeping Acosta on a short leash at GasGas – cause tension over the final 11 Grand Prix weekends as Miller turns up to work for an employer who doesn’t want him? Truth be told, it already has.

After Beirer and KTM used the Marquez-caused rider market chaos to swoop in and sign Bastianini from Ducati and Vinales from Aprilia for Tech3 during three-week break between Italy and the Netherlands, Beirer bizarrely praised Miller’s role in making the RC16 a better bike since the 29-year-old crossed from Ducati at the end of 2022 … in a press call explaining why he’d been sacked.

“Jack, his crew chief [Christian Pupulin] and then the team, they did something to the bike which we never did before,” Beirer acknowledged.

“At the beginning of last year, they extended the potential of KTM. They showed us new things where we didn’t want to go with the KTM before, so he made us better. But already last year in the second part of the season, Brad [Binder] could benefit much more from what Jack did to the bike than Jack himself. Jack started to have problems during last year and we could never recover.

“Jack made our bike better, and it looks like at the moment he’s maybe the last one to benefit from that.”

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Miller, in his first public comments at Assen weeks after the Tech3 door was deadbolted, claimed he’d been blindsided, and that the Austrian factory had gone back on its word.

“The last I heard it was ‘don’t bother talking to anybody, we want to keep you in the family’,” Miller said.

“And then you get a phone call three hours before the [Bastianini and Vinales signings] press release gets launched saying ‘you’re not getting a contract’. So I was surprised to say the least. But it is what it is.

“Up until [the final race in] Valencia, I will continue … I’m a professional and we get paid to do this job, so I’ll continue to be a professional all the way up until I move, as I did in Ducati, as I did in Honda. We’ll continue to push until the end.

“It’s about gaining knowledge, gaining experience and developing the bike, and that’s where I felt we were heading. Management had a different plan, so that’s up to them.”

Patterson feels Miller would arguably benefit from a mid-season switch, which would give him 11 Grand Prix weekends to put his best foot forward to extend his MotoGP tenure into an 11th season.

“I don’t think Jack would care if they made the switch – if anything it would take some of the pressure off him,” he says.

“I don’t see any reason why KTM wouldn’t, but equally there’s been no noises that they’re going to, so far.

“The only reason I can possibly think is something to do with that they’re trying to keep [Tech3 GasGas team principal Herve] Poncharal sweet. They’re not not doing it, for now, because they’re trying to be nice to Jack.”