Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco will hold a Cardinals-centric chat on 10-20-22 at 2:30 pm CST. Click here to leave a question in advance or participate in the live chat.

The Cardinals are fresh off a fourth straight postseason appearance, but they’ve failed to advance to a Division Series in each of the last three years. They’ll presumably try to run things back with as much continuity as possible given their regular season success, but they’ll do so without two franchise icons who had long ago announced that 2022 would be their final seasons.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Nolan Arenado, 3B: $144MM through 2027 (Arenado can opt out this offseason; Rockies owe Cardinals $16MM in 2023 regardless of Arenado’s decision, Colorado would owe an additional $5MM annually through 2025 if he declines to opt out)
• Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $52MM through 2024
• Steven Matz, LHP: $35.5MM through 2025
• Miles Mikolas, RHP: $17MM through 2023
• Paul DeJong, SS: $11MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
• Giovanny Gallegos, RHP: $11MM through 2024 (including buyout of 2025 club option)
• Drew VerHagen, RHP: $3MM

Total 2023 commitments: $84.5MM if Arenado doesn’t opt out, $54.5MM if Arenado opts out (factoring in Rockies’ payments)
Total future commitments: $242.5MM if Arenado doesn’t opt out, $113.5MM if Arenado opts out

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)

Total arbitration projections: $39.85MM

Non-tender candidates: Stratton, Reyes, Hudson, Cabrera

Free Agents

The Cardinals outlasted the Brewers with an excellent second half, claiming an NL Central title after two straight Wild Card berths. St. Louis’ 93 wins weren’t enough to secure a first-round bye in the new playoff format, however, leaving the Cards to match up against the Phillies in a three-game Wild Card set. Philadelphia came back from a ninth-inning deficit in Game One and went on to sweep the series, starting the St. Louis offseason earlier than the organization had hoped.

The Cardinals have had a string of early playoff exits in recent years, but they’ve continuously been one of the game’s most successful regular season teams. They’ve earned four straight playoff berths and haven’t had a below-average record in 15 years. It’s a remarkable run of consistency, anchored by one of the longer-tenured front office regimes and a few iconic presences on the roster. The front office tandem of president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and general manager Mike Girsch will be back, with Girsch inking a multi-year extension last week and Mozeliak already under contract. Yet the Cards will have to turn the page from Yadier Molina and, after a surprising resurgent return season in St. Louis that saw him eclipse 700 career home runs, Albert Pujols.

Molina and Pujols announced before the 2022 season even began that it’d be their final runs. Adam Wainwright has made no such declaration, playing things…