College football picks against the spread: Stewart Mandel’s Week 10 picks

Going 7-4 against the spread last week felt pretty good – but it was thisclose to being even better. I picked both Georgia and Michigan to cover their -22.5-point spreads, and they both managed to win by … 22.

That was a first … and hopefully last.

Last week: 7-4 against the spread

Season: 51-47-1 against the spread

(All point spreads come from BetMGM, click here for live odds, all kickoff times Eastern.)

Appalachian State (-3) at Coastal Carolina, Thursday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN

The Mountaineers have been tough to figure out. They very nearly beat a UNC team that is now 7-1 and beat Texas A&M in College Station, but they also lost at home to James Madison and at 3-5 Texas State. I’ll ride with Grayson McCall and the guys in teal.

Coastal Carolina 27, Appalachian State 20
Pick: Coastal Carolina +3

Air Force (-7) vs. Army in Arlington, Texas, 11:30 a.m., CBS

Army has won four of the last five meetings with Air Force, but Jeff Monken’s team has taken a step back this season, sitting at 3-4. The Falcons are 5-3, but their offense has been all over the map, averaging 40-plus points in four games and 14 or less in three of them. This one should tilt more on the lower-scoring side.

Air Force 21, Army 17
Pick: Army +7

Florida at Texas A&M (-3.5), Noon, ESPN

The one glimmer of hope in A&M’s fourth straight loss last week to Ole Miss was the encouraging first start by freshman QB Conner Weigman (28-for-44, 338 yards, four TDs, 0 INTs). The Aggies now have a promising passing attack with Weigman and WRs Evan Stewart and Moose Muhammad III, and Florida ranks 87th against the pass.

Texas A&M 27, Florida 20
Pick: Texas A&M -3.5

Texas Tech at No. 7 TCU (-9.5), Noon, Fox

First of all, Gus Johnson, welcome to the Big 12. It has been a while since you got to see someone other than Ohio State or Michigan. Texas Tech is coming off a brutal 45-17 loss to Baylor that dropped the Red Raiders to 4-4. They don’t seem like the team that could put a stop to Max Duggan, Kendre Miller and the rest of TCU’s big-play offense.

TCU 48, Texas Tech 27
Pick: TCU -9.5

No. 1 Tennessee at No. 3 Georgia (-8), 3:30 p.m., CBS

It could be that Georgia is talented and physical enough to bully Tennessee and disrupt that offense. But Josh Heupel’s team is no fluke. The Vols blew out LSU in Death Valley, put up 52 on Alabama and beat a top-20 Kentucky team 44-6. Neither a hostile atmosphere nor the Dawgs’ athletes on defense figure to intimidate them.

Tennessee 42, Georgia 40
Pick: Tennessee +8

No. 18 Oklahoma State (-1.5) at Kansas, 3:30 p.m., FS1

Another tough turnaround for Oklahoma State, which got walloped 48-0 by Kansas State and now faces a likely rejuvenated Kansas team coming off an idle week. The Jayhawks may have injured QB Jalon Daniels back too; he’s been practicing. Kansas is playing its first home game in a month, with a chance to clinch bowl eligibility.

Kansas 27, Oklahoma State 24
Pick: Kansas +1.5

No. 6 Alabama (-13.5) at No. 10 LSU, 7 p.m., ESPN

Nick Saban revealed this…