Alex Ovechkin now sits 99 goals away from Gretzky. Some dirty math shows how

I’m no mathematician, nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. But because my son Ethan has been asking me for help on his math homework, I am feeling cocky about my skills. So now I want to tackle the behemoth question of just how realistic the goals record is at this point in time for Alex Ovechkin.

Let’s do some arithmetic.

After scoring two empty-net goals on the Philadelphia Flyers, Alex Ovechkin pulled within 99 goals of Wayne Gretzky’s record of 894. Basically, one Gretzky away from Gretzky. It was also Ovi’s 14th and 15th goals of the season.

Let’s say Ovi continues at this slowish goal-scoring pace (for him). How many would he have by the end of the year?

Ovi’s projected goals: First, we need to figure out his projected goals total for the season. If we divide Ovi’s 15 goals by the 28 games he’s played in, that equals .536. Said simply, Ovi is averaging slightly over a half a goal per game.

Projected end-of-season total: Over a full 82-game season (82 x .536), Ovi would score ~44 goals. That would actually be his worst goals total in a full season since 2016-17 (33 goals). The good news is that several top stars for the Capitals are coming back soon from injury in Tom Wilson and Nicklas Backstrom. So Ovi might pick up his pace more towards his career .61 goals per game mark later in the season.

Career goals at end of the year: If Alex Ovechkin scores 29 more goals this season, my addition says he would end the season with 824 career tallies.

How many goals would Ovi be behind Gretzky then? This takes some subtraction. 894-824. Ovi would trail Wayne Gretzky by 70 with three seasons left on his five-year deal.

So what would Ovi have to do to catch Gretz? My simple division — 70 divided by 3 — says Ovi would have to average 23.3 goals during his age 38, 39, and 40 seasons to get the record. He would have to average .28 goals per game if he plays all 246 games.

You guys, it’s looking good. *crosses fingers*

Headline photo: Recha Oktaviani on Unsplash