Northwestern is college basketball’s biggest surprise

Only a few months ago, Chris Collins faced a perilous future.

The Northwestern men’s basketball coach appeared to be entering a win-or-bust season without sufficient firepower to save his job.

Collins had already exhausted much of the goodwill he earned in 2017 when he guided long-struggling Northwestern to its lone NCAA tournament appearance in program history. His teams staggered to a 26-71 Big Ten record over the next five years despite the university refurbishing its aging arena and infusing his program with unprecedented resources.

Only days after Collins’ fifth straight losing season last March, Northwestern’s first-year athletic director hinted that he was running out of patience. Derrick Gragg issued a statement noting his “disappointment” and tasking Collins with “making necessary changes to build towards success in the 2022-23 campaign.”

To outsiders, Northwestern had little hope of ascending in the Big Ten or contending for an NCAA tournament bid, especially after the team’s top two big men transferred to Duke and North Carolina last spring. A preseason poll of 28 Big Ten beat writers projected the Wildcats to finish 13th in the league, ahead of only Nebraska.

To Collins, Northwestern’s outlook wasn’t so dire. Even with Pete Nance and Ryan Young transferring out, the Wildcats returned six of their top eight players from a 2021-22 team that lost 11 times by seven or fewer points. Collins fancied his experienced backcourt, as well as the camaraderie and purpose his team displayed over the offseason.

“We felt we had a great core of guys who were really invested in the program,” Collins told Yahoo Sports. “When everyone picked us to finish at the bottom of the league, I did think we had a chance to be better than people thought.”

Northwestern hasn’t just exceeded expectations like Collins predicted. The Wildcats (20-7, 11-5) might be this college basketball season’s most unlikely success story. Less than three weeks before Selection Sunday, they have climbed to second place in the Big Ten and have entered the AP Top 25 for the first time this season at No. 21.

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Merely in the mix for an at-large NCAA tournament bid when February began, Northwestern has since reeled off five straight victories and rocketed to a projected No. 6 seed. On Feb. 12, the Wildcats waylaid Purdue to record their first win in program history over college basketball’s top-ranked team. They then validated that with takedowns of Indiana and Iowa, both of whom were favored by oddsmakers to defeat Northwestern at Welsh-Ryan Arena.

Northwestern now has seven Quadrant 1 wins this season, tied for the sixth most in the nation as of Monday morning. These days, the Wildcats display the confidence and swagger of a team that believes it can beat…