Louisville vs Duke Odds, Picks, & Predictions Tonight

Louisville has had a dreadful season up to this point but is fresh off an upset win over Clemson. With Duke favored by so many points at home its tough to pick a side, but our college basketball picks are all in on El Ellis to fill the basket tonight.

The Louisville Cardinals and Duke Blue Devils meet in an ACC battle that has become an important game for the gome side.

Duke is, for now, on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. It comes into this matchup off successive wins, including a 22-point dispatching of Syracuse its last time out. It could be turning a corner after what’s mostly been a disappointing season with a record of 19-8.

It’s been a historically bad season for the Cardinals under first-year Head Coach Kenny Payne. Louisville sits at just four wins which will undoubtedly end as a historic low winning percentage for the program.

With that said, the glimmer of hope for Cards’ fans is that their team has played better lately. They are fresh off a 10-point win against Clemson and have played some of the toughest competition in the conference quite close over the last month. 

What’s the best bet for this game? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Louisville vs. Duke.

Louisville vs Duke best odds

Louisville vs Duke picks and predictions

The inclination here is certainly to take Duke on the spread. 

We’ll talk more about this later, but this is an extremely tough situational spot for the Cards. They’re coming off an emotional home victory on the night the school honored the 2013 national champion team. Now it heads on the road — with just a day of rest — against a team that cannot afford to slip up that has significantly more talent than them.

With that said, Louisville has surprisingly been an ATS wagon as of late. Since the start of the month, the Cardinals have been 5-1 ATS which is the best record of anyone in the conference. It’s forced me to look elsewhere for my best bet, too. 

I’m finding the best value in the prop market. Duke’s pick-and-roll defense has been awful for much of the season. It’s been exposed in various ACC games this season, most recently against Miami when the Canes’ guard play combined for over half its points. From a conference standpoint, the Devils’ pick-and-roll defense is the second-worst in the league. They’ve allowed .86 points per possession on such sets and an eFG of 46%.

Perhaps no guard in the ACC is more prepared to expose this weakness than Ellis. 

Sure, you have a few concerns. Maybe the insane volume of minutes and usage catches up with Ellis soon. Or maybe Dereck Lively has a repeat of North Carolina blocking seemingly everything at the rim. Still, though, it’s not enough to pass up this number.

Ellis is as hot as anyone in the country. His last three games have combined for an average of 27.3 points per game. That clip would be the second-best in the country. From a pick-and-roll perspective, Ellis has thrived….