Red Bull tipped to run and hide while Alonso takes fight to Ferraris · RaceFans

The revolutionary new era of Formula 1 kicked off 12 months ago with one of the more thrilling hours of qualifying to begin a championship for many years. Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari beating Max Verstappen’s Red Bull announced to the world that the paradigm had shifted and fans were in for a thrilling new season.

But as the season unfolded, Red Bull and Verstappen shattered dreams and records alike with a brutally dominant run, making Sundays a question not of if they would win, but how.

With the first Saturday of the season now confined to history, it’s easy to look at Red Bull’s advantage and assume that 2023 will simply be the sequel to 2022. An exhibition of excellence by the world champions. However, with the stage set for the opening race of the championship, this could be a whole different show to last time out in Abu Dhabi.

Narratively, the central plot remains the same: Red Bull are comfortable favourites to reach the chequered flag first. Despite agonising over their balance over Friday night, Red Bull, as they always do, found a solution when they needed to most. Their reward was Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez starting 2023 as they finished 2022 – locking out the front row on a Saturday.

How pole was won – and lost

Perez was naturally disappointed to begin a new season being beaten by his team mate, but must take heart from how closely he pushed the world champion. Perez was as much as a tenth up on Verstappen in the middle sector on their final run, until the pair climbed the uphill left-hander of turn 11 and Verstappen edged ahead through turn 13.

Red Bull were the only cars to breach the 90-second barrier. Leclerc qualified third with a 1’30.000, a metaphor for the separation between the champions and their rivals. But it could easily have been closer – Leclerc lost two-tenths of the 0.29his -second gap to Verstappen through the first corner, keeping largely in pace with the Red Bulls over the remainder of the lap. He may have improved with a second attempt, but Ferrari approached Q3 with Sunday’s race firmly at the forefront of their minds.

But the most intriguing element of qualifying was the litmus test for Aston Martin and Fernando Alonso, who had threatened to produced a remarkable upset all weekend until qualifying fifth – still a remarkable result for the team which could not escape Q1 here last year. Alonso attacked his sole Q3 lap hard and was even quicker than Leclerc over the first half of the lap. However, Alonso lost the bulk of his time on the exit of corners – particularly turns one, ten and 11 – suggesting the AMR23 lacks the traction that the RB19 enjoys at this rear-limited circuit.

Alonso was, of course, delighted to secure a top-five start ahead of the two Mercedes, which find themselves now staring at the prospect of having to compete for the honour of third-fastest team on the grid. While George Russell largely shadowed Alonso around the…