Khris Middleton Could Change the Calculus of This Year’s Title Race

With the playoffs just one month away, no team is burdened by fewer questions than the Milwaukee Bucks. They already have 50 wins, an offense that hums behind the 3-point line, and the league’s tightest defense. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a hurricane moonlighting as an MVP candidate, Jrue Holiday is human stucco about to make his fifth All-Defensive team, and Brook Lopez leads the league in blocks while enjoying the highest 3-point percentage of his career.

But fewer questions doesn’t mean there aren’t any questions, which brings us to Khris Middleton, Milwaukee’s 6-foot-8 wing, whose physical condition—going back to last April’s sprained MCL and the offseason wrist surgery that sidelined him for all of October and November—should be considered one of this season’s most consequential variables. Much is riding on his ability to stay healthy and function at an All-Star level for the next three months. When Middleton is at or near 100 percent, the Bucks are a juggernaut who could easily strut to another parade (Thursday night’s loss to the Pacers notwithstanding). If he’s at anything less than that, though, they could be eliminated before the conference finals for the third time in four years.

In mid-December, Middleton hurt his knee and was once again placed on the shelf. He didn’t return until January 23. Since then, the Bucks have lost just three of their last 24 games. Before Middleton came back, they had the eighth-worst offense. Since he came back, they are seventh best, and only three teams are more efficient in the half court. Lineups that feature Antetokounmpo, Holiday, and Middleton this season boast a scorching 128.6 offensive rating.

Middleton came off the bench in 14 straight games before he returned to the starting lineup 10 days ago. His counting stats (points, rebounds, shots, free throws, assists, etc.) per 100 possessions are as good as they’ve ever been, but he’s still not playing in back-to-backs, and he continues to be hampered by a minutes restriction that reared its head at the end of Saturday night’s loss to the Warriors, when Middleton was benched at the start of overtime as Steph Curry morphed into Mount Saint Helens.

“We’re trying to be very diligent in how we bring back Khris and keep him healthy. He couldn’t play, he wasn’t going to play all five minutes of the overtime,” Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer said afterward. “Those hard decisions, they don’t always work, but I think overall his body’s in a good place. We’re trying to take the long road with him.”

As Milwaukee’s steadiest hand, Middleton inserts structure into a rotation that locks everything else into place. He’s a self-sufficient wing whose stoic demeanor and composed shotmaking are fulsome enough to drain chaos from moments that would otherwise be charged with too much of it. That influence is missed when he’s not…