Why has Haley Jones’ stock fallen since Stanford arrival?

Stanford Cardinal’s Haley Jones (30) shoots the ball against South Carolina Gamecocks in the first half at Stanford Maples Pavilion in Stanford, Calif., on Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022. (Shae Hammond/Bay Area News Group)

Haley Jones may not have ended her college career at last weekend’s Final Four in Dallas, but her presence was felt nonetheless.

The former Final Four Most Outstanding Player was featured heavily in ESPN’s commercials promoting the WNBA Draft, where she’s expected to be a first-round pick this upcoming Monday.

But in what may be a surprise for a player who was considered the No. 1 overall recruit nationally when she left high school in 2019, there’s a chance that the two-time All-American will not be a lottery pick.

The main reason is Jones’ struggle to develop her jump shot.

In the three years Jones won Bay Area News Group girls player of the year at Archbishop Mitty-San Jose (2016-2019), she made 39.2% of her 227 attempts from deep. When she got to Stanford, though, Jones only took 20 3-pointers in her first 44 games and made just four during the 2019-20 and 2020-21 regular seasons.

Stanford’s magical run in the 2021 NCAA Tournament offered some hope for growth, as Jones made 5-of-8 shots from 3-point range in leading the Cardinal to the national championship. But her shooting has regressed since, going 11-for-45 (24.4%) on 3-pointers in her junior season and just 3-for-32 (9.4%) in her senior year.

That regression has made the 6-foot-1 guard’s outside shot the No. 1 concern about her game for WNBA executives and analysts.

“That’s what you hear from everybody … the red flag is the inability and the lack of willingness in terms of the 3-point line,” said ESPN analyst Rebecca Lobo in a pre-draft conference call this week. “I fully expect her to be on a roster this and getting minutes — she has so many great qualities that translate to the WNBA. But in terms of why she may have gone from a projected No. 2 pick to a little lower than that, it’s the range on her 3-point shot.”

The outside shot was the primary concern that several WNBA executives expressed in The Athletic’s anonymous survey about draft-eligible players last month. It’s likely why, in mock drafts released this week, both ESPN and The Athletic have Jones falling out of the lottery (top four) and being taken with the No. 6 pick by the Atlanta Dream.

Brooke Weisbrod, ESPN’s color commentator for Stanford’s two NCAA Tournament games this season, noted that teams were “daring her to shoot” from outside. Weisbrod doesn’t share the executives’ unease about Jones’ shot.

“I’m not that concerned that she can’t hit 3s on the regular right now,” Weisbrod said last month. “I think that’s…