Mets will soon face a decision if veteran Eduardo Escobar continues to struggle

In the sixth inning on Wednesday, Eduardo Escobar acted like someone who may be affected by a conspicuous early-season slump. When he reached the batter’s box for the third time, runners occupied first and second with none out. The Mets held a one-run lead. Tomás Nido, their defense-first catcher who bats last in their order, waited on deck. The situation presented an opportunity for Escobar to come through in a major way. Instead of taking it, Escobar chose on his own to bunt.

For the first time in six years, Escobar laid down a sacrifice. Given the circumstances, the choice seemed curious. All the numbers say not to give up the out. The play worked out favorably for the Mets — kind of. After Escobar bunted the ball toward the mound, Padres reliever Brent Honeywell bobbled it and never attempted a throw. So, Honeywell’s error helped the Mets load the bases. Nido then grounded into a double play. New York scored a run in the inning because lead-off man Brandon Nimmo followed with a two-out single. The Mets ended up winning, 5-2, with Escobar’s decision registering as merely a footnote in the box score. But it was a sign of a hard decision that may be looming.

Analyzing how long the Mets should ride out Escobar’s struggles before turning to Brett Baty involves a deeper assessment of the veteran’s underlying numbers and the top prospect’s readiness. It’s early. The Mets have played 13 games. It might still be too early to consider making the switch. But it won’t be long until that changes.

While Escobar’s traditional numbers look alarming, they need more time before something can be made of them. The underlying data differs because some of those numbers can be useful in a week or two.

In 12 games, Escobar owns a .103/.143/.205 slash line. He experienced a similarly poor stretch last year, when in 12 games from April 30 to May 14, he slashed just .104/.173/.125. The switch-hitting Escobar, 34, tends to run hot and cold. Last September, he produced a .982 OPS, the highest of any month in his career. In the end, his 2022 season added up to a .726 OPS and 106 wRC+, which is slightly above average. Perhaps Escobar remains capable of turning things around in 2023, but his swing rate and batted ball profile suggests improvement needs to come quickly.

Swing rate requires about 340 pitches to stabilize while chase rate takes about 500, which is equivalent to about a month-plus worth of plate appearances. Escobar has seen 171 pitches. According to FanGraphs, Escobar has swung about 50 percent of the time. He has swung at a pitch out of the strike zone about 39 percent of the time. Those numbers are in line with his career averages (51 percent and 37 percent, respectively). Though contact rate needs about 100 plate appearances to stabilize, putting the bat on the ball hasn’t been the problem for Escobar; his 77.9 percent contact rate so far tracks with his 79.1 percent contact rate over his career. The issue involves…