How have Red Wings’ NHL Draft lottery results impacted their rebuild?

When the card finally turned and the Chicago Blackhawks were anointed as winners of the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery — and, by extension, Connor Bedard — the collective groan among many of the sport’s fans was palpable.

And that was especially true in Detroit, where Red Wings fans watched as their big-market, Original Six foes needed just one year in the mud to get the big break that continues to elude their own franchise.

The Red Wings’ lack of luck in the lottery has been a talking point for years, of course, and is nothing new. This year, they didn’t even get particularly unlucky, missing out on a longshot jump into the top three, but still landing exactly where they were supposed to by the pre-lottery position at ninth. The despair, though, persisted. It wasn’t that lottery result, per se, driving the feeling — just the collective lack of a break compounding for the fans.

And it was enough to spark some curiosity as to just how much the Red Wings’ lack of lottery luck — and their draft order drops resulting from it — has really impacted their rebuild.

Here’s what I found, year by year, with some overall thoughts at the end.

2017

Pre-lottery position: Seventh

Lottery odds: 6.7 percent for first pick, 7 percent for second, 7.2 percent for third

Post-lottery position: Ninth

Players picked between pre-lottery position and actual: Lias Andersson, Casey Mittelstadt

Player Detroit picked: Michael Rasmussen

Analysis: Detroit’s first year back in the draft lottery foretold what was to come in the years ahead. The Red Wings dropped two spots, from seventh to ninth.

Certainly, winning the lottery and moving into the top three would have set up Detroit’s rebuild quite nicely. Four of the top five players picked in 2017 are high-impact players for their teams, with Miro Heiskanen and Cale Makar perennial Norris-type defensemen, Elias Pettersson a 100-point star at center, and first pick Nico Hischier an excellent No. 2 center.

Realistically, though, their odds to move into the top three were never high, and the drop from No. 7 to No. 9 didn’t hurt the Red Wings much. Rasmussen has blossomed into a key piece for the Red Wings. He may not be a top-six center, but he’s playing a big role on the wing, is a horse on the penalty kill and looks like a good bet for 40-plus points over a full season. He could be a 20-goal scorer as soon as next year too — though that may require him finally claiming net-front duties on the power play, which is the main part of his projection that has yet to come to fruition.

More importantly, for these purposes: There’s nobody wishing the Red Wings had the chance to select Andersson at the No. 7 spot, and while Mittelstadt finally broke out this season on a high-scoring Buffalo team, Rasmussen’s defensive value likely puts their overall impact in a similar range.

If there’s any remaining regret from 2017, then, it’s likely more about the players Detroit passed on, with top-six…