Examining the huge risk John Calipari may be taking with the UK basketball

If nothing else, 2023-24 is shaping up as one of the most fascinating seasons in the long, storied history of the Kentucky Wildcats men’s basketball program.

In the immediate aftermath of UK’s season-ending loss to Kansas State in the 2023 NCAA Tournament round of 32, I wrote that it seemed “a heavy lift” to expect UK’s top-ranked incoming recruiting class — DJ Wagner, Aaron Bradshaw, Justin Edwards, Robert Dillingham and Reed Sheppard — to be primarily responsible for restoring Kentucky basketball’s faded luster.

Yet now, after what has so far been a player-retention disaster for UK this offseason compounded by futile forays into the transfer portal, John Calipari appears to be doubling down on a freshman-centric approach to team construction.

Needing to build out a roster that, presently, has only seven recruited, scholarship players for next season, Kentucky’s best chances to add new talent appear to be three more incoming freshmen — 6-foot-7 wing Jordan Burks; 6-4 shooting guard Joey Hart; and 7-foot big man Somto Cyril.

The first two are three-star recruits in the 247Sports Composite rankings; the latter is a four-star.

If UK were to sign all three and add no one else to its roster for next season, Kentucky would enter 2023-24 with two sophomores and and eight true freshmen — and would not have one player on its team who has ever started a college basketball game.

Should that scenario play out, Calipari would not just be going against the prevailing wisdom on how to build a winning roster in men’s college hoops, the UK coach would be swimming against a tidal wave.

When analysts say the key to success in men’s college hoops in recent years has been “getting old,” they are not just riffing off the top of their heads. One need only examine the starting lineups of each Final Four team since 2016 to see what roster approach has been yielding March Madness magic:

2016: Of the 20 players who started in the Final Four, 15 were juniors or above.

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NCAA champ Villanova started two seniors, two juniors and one freshman.

2017: Fourteen of the 20 Final Four starters were juniors or seniors.

NCAA champ North Carolina started two seniors and three juniors.

2018: Of the 20 Final Four starters, 14 were juniors or seniors.

National champion Villanova started three redshirt juniors, a junior and a redshirt freshman.

2019: Again, 14 of 20 Final Four starters were juniors or older.

NCAA Tournament winner Virginia started a redshirt junior, two juniors, a redshirt sophomore and a freshman.

2021: There were yet again 14 of 20 Final Four starters who were juniors or older.

NCAA champion Baylor started a redshirt senior, a senior and three juniors.

2022: Only 11 of 20 Final Four starters were juniors or older, although three others were…