MLB trade deadline, 50 days out: Bowden on 8 key factors shaping this trade

MLB’s trade deadline is just 50 days away, and by all indications, this trade season will be a lot different than the deadlines of the past several years. The expanded, 12-team postseason field has accomplished everything the league wanted it to from a competitive perspective, as there are now more teams within striking distance of the wild-card spots than ever before. However, as a result, that also means there are a lot more “buyers” and a lot fewer “sellers” at this stage than we’ve ever seen, which could have dramatic effects on how much trade activity occurs and the types of deals that are made.

In addition, other key factors are shaping this year’s atypical trade landscape. The few sellers that do exist don’t have many high-value players of interest to contenders. The mediocre Central divisions in the American League and National League have made it so every team in those divisions, save one, still has a shot at the postseason (some are in better shape than others, of course). On top of that, some large-market teams that aren’t playing up to expectations don’t want to significantly add to their payrolls as the luxury-tax penalties, including the loss of potential draft picks, have made them less willing to extend beyond certain tax thresholds (with the Mets being an obvious exception).

Many teams are looking for help in the form of starting pitchers and/or outfielders, but the inventory for both is currently very thin on the trade market. Therefore, it appears relievers might end up dominating this deadline, which isn’t exactly what fans of blockbuster deals, with star players changing teams, want to hear.

Will this deadline be a “dud”? It’s trending in that direction, but a lot can change — and inevitably will change — leading up to the Aug. 1 trade deadline, and there will be no shortage of storylines regardless.

“It’ll for sure be an interesting market. There are gonna be a lot of contenders out there this year,” Marlins general manager Kim Ng told me on MLB Radio Network’s Front Office show a week ago, adding that trade talks among teams had started to “bubble,” but hadn’t gotten serious yet.

If you’re hoping for a more exciting deadline, like the past two years, the industry will need some teams with top talent to collapse in the coming weeks. For example, if teams such as the White Sox, Cardinals, Mets or Padres crater, they could become the headliners of the deadline because they all have star-caliber players they could look to trade to get younger and fill future needs.

Let’s take a closer look at where things stand. Here are the key factors shaping the early stages of this trade season as we head toward the deadline.

1. The expanded playoffs are “working,” with more teams in the mix, but that means more buyers and fewer sellers

In the National League, 11 of the 15 teams are currently in playoff spots or within three games of the final wild-card berth; all 15 teams…