Arthur Fils vs. Carlos Alcaraz odds, prediction: Tennis pick, best bet

Wimbledon may still be a couple of weeks in the distance, but tennis fans will be in for a real treat on Tuesday morning’s grass courts in England.

World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz, the second-favorite to win Wimbledon behind Novak Djokovic, will take on rising star Arthur Fils on the lawn at the Queen’s Club in London. 

This is the first head-to-head meeting between the two teenage sensations. 

Arthur Fils vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction

(8:20 a.m. ET.)

Only 13 months separate Alcaraz, 20, and Fils, 19, but in terms of career experience, there’s very little comparison.

Alcaraz has won a Grand Slam, has 10 ATP titles, and has been a major player on the scene for over two years. Meanwhile, this is Fils’ first year on the ATP Tour, and although he’s got a recent title — the Frenchmen won on the clay in Lyon — this will be the biggest challenge of his career.

That is reflected in the betting odds, as Fils is a +610 underdog against Alcaraz. 

But there are some factors that point to this being a pretty tricky matchup for the favorite.

First and most importantly, Fils is a phenomenal talent.

He’s not your everyday 19-year-old underdog.

Fils already has wins over Roberto Bautista-Agut, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Francisco Cerundolo in 2023, so he can play with top-20 players at this junction of his career.

There’s no questioning that Fils can give Alcaraz a game on his day.

And this could be his day.

Fils had to qualify for ATP London, meaning he had to win two matches to earn his way into the main draw.

The wunderkind from Northern France dispatched ATP Tour veterans Hugo Grenier and Alexei Popyrin to do just that.

The wins are nice, but what’s more important is that Fils has a couple of grass matches under his belt, while this will be the first match on the lawn for Alcaraz in 2023.

The World No. 2 is just 4-2 on grass in his career and is coming off an exhausting clay court swing that finished with him cramping in the semifinals of the French Open against Novak Djokovic.

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There’s a couple of ways to play Fils in this match.

One strategy would be to take the Frenchman to win the first set at +320 and bank on it taking some time for Alcaraz to get used to playing a competitive match on this surface. 

If you’re looking for a little less risk, you could back Fils to cover the 4.5-game spread.

But for me, I’ll go big and split a unit on Fils to pull the upset and to win the first set.

Arthur Fils vs. Carlos Alcaraz pick

The Bet: Arthur Fils to win +610 | Fils to win first set +330 (FanDuel)