What the data says about Rangers backup goalie Jonathan Quick

Chris Drury headed into free agency last month with a few needs, but none more crucial than filling the backup goalie spot. In his first two seasons as general manager he had the luxury of merely needing someone to pop in for the occasional start behind Igor Shesterkin, who emerged as one of the top goaltenders in the world in 2021-22. Alexandar Georgiev bristled in the backup role that season and was dealt to the Avalanche just before the 2022 draft, leaving Drury to find a more proper veteran backup to make 23-28 starts last season.

The Rangers went with Jaroslav Halak, who had a rough start to his Rangers stint but finished up with solid backup numbers: A .903 save percentage and 7.87 goals saved above expectation (stat courtesy Clear Sight Hockey), which ranked 19th out of all 106 goalies who made an NHL appearance last season. Even turning 38 in May, Halak proved to be adept at making every third or fourth start behind Shesterkin.

Drury decided to go in another direction, toward a goalie who is a surefire Hall of Famer when he hangs up the pads. Jonathan Quick won two Stanley Cups with the Kings, the last in 2014, and established himself as one of the great goalies in the game in the 2010s. Last season was a struggle and the Kings rather unceremoniously dumped him prior to the trade deadline in a deal for Blue Jackets goalie Joonas Korpisalo, needing to trade Quick to make the salary cap situation work but alienating the greatest goalie in Kings franchise history.

“Up until five months ago I thought I was retiring as a King,” Quick said during his introductory conference call as a Ranger last month. “I thought I was going to finish my career here (in Los Angeles), raise my family here. It didn’t work out that way, so we’ll make the most of it.”

Quick made the most of his move away from L.A., with Columbus wheeling him to Vegas for nothing before the deadline. He made nine regular-season starts for the Golden Knights and posted decent numbers, then served as backup and support system for Adin Hill as the unheralded goalie led the Knights to a Stanley Cup.

It’s a great story and Quick returning to the northeast, where he rooted for the Rangers as a kid, furthers the story even more.

But the data tells a different story — that this is a fairly big risk, even for a goalie who only needs to make 25 or so starts. Quick turns 38 in January and he must reverse a fairly steady decline over the last five seasons to be a productive part of a Rangers team that has a new coach, a bunch of high-end players, and now a host of veteran additions to boost what the organization feels is a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.

Looking back through Clear Sight’s data over the past five seasons you’ll find six instances where a goalie allowed 20 or more goals above expectation. As you can see in the chart below detailing Quick’s xGA since 2018-19, the three-time Cup champion has had two of those seasons, including last season’s…