Win-Loss Predictions for Every Team Following Complete NBA 2023-24 Schedule

The NBA’s full 2023-24 schedule is out, which means it’s time to break down the incoming win-loss records for all 30 teams.

Educated by the regular-season over/unders at FanDuel’s Sportsbook and the fact that the league’s total for wins has to match its total for losses, you’ll find predictions for each squad below.

Before reading, though, bear in mind that we’re firmly in the era of NBA parity. Thirteen of the 30 win totals from FanDuel are between 40 and 50. Only six teams eclipsed 50 wins last season. And 2022-23’s best net rating (net points per 100 possessions) was below seven.

Just about every team in the league has a star talent. Most have at least two. On a given night, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner could get hot enough to beat a team like the Golden State Warriors, and no one would be shocked.

The predictions below will reflect today’s talent-rich league.

Over/Under: 41.5

After years of rumors, the Atlanta Hawks finally traded John Collins in a deal that amounted to little more than a salary dump. Generally, losing talent for nothing is an NBA no-no, but Atlanta might be fine moving forward.

The Hawks’ net rating was worse with Collins on the floor in each of his last two seasons, and his departure should mean more minutes for up-and-comers Onyeka Okongwu and Jalen Johnson. A more positionless starting forward tandem with De’Andre Hunter and Saddiq Bey should help too.

Ultimately, though, the success or failure of this team will once again depend on Trae Young and Dejounte Murray.

Last season, the Hawks were a ho-hum plus-1.6 points per 100 possessions when both were on the floor. They’ll have to much more thoroughly dominate those minutes if they’re going to push closer to 50 wins.

Over/Under: 54.5

It’s cliche, but Marcus Smart really has been the beating heart of the Boston Celtics for several years. His playmaking and point-of-attack defense were big reasons Boston was generally better when he was on the floor the last nine years.

Replacing him with the oft-injured Kristaps Porziņģis (who’s already dealing with plantar fasciitis ahead of training camp) is, at the very least, a bit of a gamble on the team’s chemistry.

But at this point, Derrick White is probably a better player than Smart. Malcolm Brogdon is still around to help fill those shoes too. And if Porziņģis can give Boston 60-plus games, the Celtics should be a lot better offensively.

Add all that to the fact that Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are still around and it’s easy to see this team competing for the top seed in the East.

Really, the only reason Boston is coming in below that over/under is the parity mentioned in the intro. There are a lot of good teams in the NBA right now. Getting to…