NHL 2023-24 Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected standings

Welcome to our NHL projections and probabilities page where you will find each team’s projected point total, its probability of making the playoffs and its odds of advancing to each subsequent round, including winning the Stanley Cup.

The projections are based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, which factors in each team’s projected strength, current health and strength of schedule (which includes opponent strength, venue and rest). Each team’s projected strength is based on the projected value of the players on its roster, which is based on their Offensive and Defensive Rating. 

This page will be updated each morning. Click to expand any chart for a larger view.

All projections and probabilities are rounded to the nearest whole number.

Last updated: October 21, 2023, 12:00 A.M. EST

2023-24 NHL team projected standings

Correction: There was an error with projected ice-time for four players who didn’t play in 2022-23 (Sean Couturier, Cam Atkinson, Bobby Brink and Alexandre Texier). The error negatively affected the team projections for Philadelphia and Columbus and has been fixed as of October 20. 

2023-24 NHL division chances

2023-24 NHL daily playoff chances

2023-24 NHL strength of schedule

Projections on Day 1 of NHL season