Bowden: MLB teams — Think long and hard before signing a starting pitcher to a

The top of this year’s free-agent starting pitching market is robust, and the most coveted arms will get lucrative long-term deals, but as teams vie to sign them they must weigh the potential rewards with the considerable risks that come with these contracts.

Shohei Ohtani leads the market, but after undergoing elbow surgery he likely won’t pitch again until 2025. He’ll also get paid significantly more than anyone else, so let’s set him aside for the moment and contemplate the next tier of top free-agent starters.

This next-best group includes: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 25, who was posted by the Orix Buffaloes on Monday; Jordan Montgomery, 30, a newly minted World Series champion; and Blake Snell, 30, the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner. It also included Aaron Nola, 30, who re-signed with the Phillies this week on a seven-year, $172 million deal.

According to agents and front-office executives I’ve spoken with across the industry, the pitchers in this tier are projected to each receive a contract between $120 million and $220 million, and in total teams are expected to guarantee all four between $500 million and $750 million. None of that amount is expected to be insured because of the high costs of coverage to teams based on the current insurance market. Therefore, if any of those pitchers end up needing Tommy John surgery or suffering another career-altering injury, or simply significantly decline sooner than expected, the teams will still have to pay their full salaries.

That’s part of the calculus for teams when they’re evaluating any free agent, and of course, some big-dollar, multiyear signings of top starters have worked out well. But you don’t have to look hard to find many deals that haven’t. So Phillies fans, as you deservedly celebrate the Nola signing, just remember that these types of deals usually don’t work out for the teams for more than the first few years. Let’s run through some of the prime examples from recent years.

1. Jacob deGrom, Rangers — five years, $185 million (2023-27)

The Rangers agreed to a five-year, $185 million deal with Jacob deGrom last offseason that covered the 2023-27 seasons. The righty made just six starts for Texas before needing Tommy John surgery, and he is not expected back until September 2024, when he’ll be 36 years old. At that point, the Rangers will have paid him about $70 million for the first two years of the contract and gotten two wins and 30 1/3 innings in return. Then they’ll have to hope he fully recovers from the second Tommy John surgery of his career. The two-time Cy Young Award winner could come back strong late next year and pitch well for the final three years of the contract, but the Rangers will in essence be paying him more than $60 million a season for the time when he is healthy, and that’s if everything goes well.

2. Carlos Rodón,…