Can Pep Guardiola rely on Julian Alvarez in midfield against strong opposition?

Three games without a victory is hardly a disaster, particularly when those matches are against Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur.

But for Manchester City, those six dropped points might prove crucial come the end of the season. There have been various common themes from those three matches, including missed chances and late concessions. From the balance of play, it’s clear City have been dominant and should have put the matches to bed, but after a 3-3 draw against a Tottenham side without any proper centre-backs and shorn of their best player so far this season, James Maddison, it’s also fair to look at whether Pep Guardiola has found the right balance, particularly with his use of Julian Alvarez.

Alvarez has enjoyed a truly remarkable 12 months, leading the line as Argentina won the World Cup before playing a crucial role in City’s treble-winning campaign. He’s made himself almost undroppable and in the absence of Kevin De Bruyne has been converted into an attacking No 8. By and large, he’s performed well in that role, but it constitutes something of a gamble in big matches, where City need more control.

City are unusually light in midfield this season. De Bruyne has only played 20 minutes, Ilkay Gundogan hasn’t been properly replaced, and John Stones’ ability to step forward into midfield has been badly missed. Manuel Akanji is manfully performing that role but with less guile and confidence on the ball than Stones. That means Rodri, largely excellent in front of the defence, is forced to get through too much work, with and without possession.

With Stones fit or with Gundogan alongside Rodri, the use of Alvarez might not be a problem. But Alvarez’s role is more fluid than we’d generally expect of City’s No 8s. He’s allowed to push forward in support of Erling Haaland more and is given the freedom to stay central rather than drift wide.

Here’s one example from the draw against Tottenham. City, as always, are attacking with five players, but rather than supporting Jeremy Doku with movement into the channel, Alvarez is more focused on remaining central and pushing into the box like a second striker.

And the particularly surprising thing about Guardiola’s system yesterday was that he elected to use Alvarez to the left and Bernardo Silva to the right. That’s the reverse of his usual approach this season and odd considering how many problems Bernardo caused with his runs into the left channel against Manchester United and last week against Liverpool.

With those No 8s switched, City offered less threat out wide. They were effectively playing two pairs of players on either flank who wanted to end up inside — Doku and Alvarez from the left are right-footed, while Bernardo and Phil Foden from the right are left-footed. This isn’t the first time Guardiola has done this — it was a feature, for example, of a game away at Marcelo…