Evaluating the NHL’s 6 most surprising breakout teams: Are they contenders or

Which breakout NHL teams are built on a sturdy, sustainable foundation that will clinch them a playoff spot in April? Which ones are masquerading and likely to flame out the longer the season drags out?

It’s an intriguing time in the league calendar to ask who’s for real or not. If a surprise team is holding onto a playoff spot by mid-December you can’t just scoff and dismiss them as frauds without taking a closer look at them. Thirteen of the NHL’s top 16 teams by points percentage on Dec. 12 last season ended up making the playoffs. And yet with two-thirds of the season remaining, the races are tight and there’s still plenty of time for teams to fall off.

There are six NHL teams currently in a playoff spot who missed the postseason in 2022-23. Let’s take a look under the hood to see who fits the profile of a realistic playoff contender.

Record: 19-9-1

Why they’re excelling: Who thought that the Canucks would be the highest-scoring team in the NHL nearly 30 games in? Vancouver’s stars are racking up points like there’s no tomorrow: J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes are all top 10 in league scoring, on pace for 100-plus point seasons. That doesn’t even include Brock Boeser who’s tied with Auston Matthews for the league’s goal-scoring race.

The Canucks have implemented a new motion-based based power play under Rick Tocchet that ranks top five in the NHL. Instead of attacking in a static 1-3-1 power-play formation, players will rotate positions and move away from the 1-3-1 formation on the fly which confuses opponents. Here’s a recent example:

This is the fifth season where Pettersson, Miller, Hughes and Boeser are playing together on the first unit power play, so they have the unique chemistry and pattern recognition to embrace this unpredictable, free-flowing style that’s so unpredictable to defend against.

It isn’t just the top players feasting offensively, though. Sam Lafferty has scored eight goals and 15 points in 29 games. Nils Höglander is breaking out with nine goals and 14 points in 27 games, with all of that production coming at even-strength. Conor Garland is the play-driving engine of a third line that’s been terrific, even though the point totals don’t quite reflect it.

Thatcher Demko has re-established himself as one of the game’s best starters after a down year in 2022-23. Casey DeSmith has been an excellent backup, pitching in a .917 save percentage.

Filip Hronek, who only suited up for four Canucks games last season, has been an excellent fit on the top pair for Hughes, racking up 27 points in 29 games.

Tocchet deserves a ton of credit for cleaning up the Canucks’ previously abysmal defensive play. Notably, they’re one of the top teams at preventing odd-man rushes against this season, according to Stathletes, which seems like a miracle considering how brutal they were in that department before his arrival. The Canucks aren’t cheating for offense anymore….