College Basketball Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Friday

College basketball expert picks and predictions

With college basketball action limited on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, we’ve got 46 games on Friday night in advance of a lot of early games on Saturday. Today’s card lacks panache, but there are some good betting opportunities to be had. We do have a lot of early games on Friday as well, as teams play matinees to be able to let the players go home to family if they are nearby or to settle in for the holidays with friends and coaches.

When there are a lot of early games, I restrict my games to anything starting about 4 p.m. ET or later, depending on the size of the card and my start time with handicapping. Today, I had to record an early-morning version of the College Football Betting Podcast, so it was a bit later of a start, but there are still enough late games to pick from.

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Here are some thoughts on the December 22 card (odds from DraftKings):

8 p.m. ET

Fresno State and San Francisco square off in a Golden State battle on Friday night. We’ve seen a pretty dramatic change in tempo this season from the Dons under head coach Chris Gerlufsen. I’m not sure he loves the offensive personnel that he has, as USF has a 20.4% TO% on offense and has not been able to get to the free throw line effectively. Gerlufsen is in his second season after taking over for Todd Golden, who plays a “rim and 3” style offense.

Gerlufsen seems to be putting his own stamp on the team now and that has included slowing down the pace. This is a really good defensive team, as the Dons rank 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 34th in eFG%. They’re also a top-40 defense on the glass and in the turnover department.

They convert well offensively at the rim, but they’re taking more mid-range jumpers this season than past editions. One of the strengths of the Fresno State defense has been forcing teams away from the rim and into the mid-range. Their shot share against on Close Twos of 32.9% ranks in the top 75.

Fresno State has played the 332nd-ranked slate of opposing defenses, which is problematic going up against a stout USF team. Fresno State’s shooting percentages are strong in all facets, but the step up in class is likely to hurt them, plus they’ve turned the ball over nearly 21% of the time. San Francisco is a takeaway machine and the shooting percentages are likely to suffer.

I like the Under 132 in this game. I don’t see either team having a ton of success getting high-percentage shots. The Dons should get extra possessions via turnovers, which should slow the game down further, as we have two teams that play below the national average. 

Pick: Under 132

10 p.m. ET

Loyola Marymount seems to be a pretty decent mid-major team, but looks can be deceiving and I think Colorado State is in a good situation tonight. The…