Kevin De Bruyne, Manchester City and an injury that has forced change for player

For Pep Guardiola, the first half of Manchester City’s season has been about survival.

Not avoiding relegation, but playing as well as possible until Kevin De Bruyne gets back from his hamstring injury, which is expected at some point in January.

Guardiola already knew Ilkay Gundogan’s summer transfer to Barcelona meant City could not play in the same way as last season and that was hugely compounded when De Bruyne limped off injured just 20 minutes into the first game of the Premier League season.

In the days after that match at Burnley, Guardiola and his coaches decided they would have to change approach from last season and proceed with three players in support of Erling Haaland up front, making a ‘3-1’ shape with their attackers.

City’s play is fluid and their shape changes from one phase of the game to the next, but the best way to think of it is that when they are crossing the halfway line (before they push five or six men up front when they are in the final third), their forwards will look something like this.

Last season, in the same phase of the game, City had Gundogan and De Bruyne floating behind the wingers and striker, making either a 2-2-1 or a 2-3 if the wingers were higher. Like this…

And this was evident in the first 20 minutes against Burnley this season, in the period before De Bruyne went off injured.

Insiders say this was not done because Guardiola feels it is the ideal way to attack, or because it provides great balance to the side, but because he essentially recognises it is the best they can do in the circumstances, even if it is not up to recent standards.

City are also playing with more vertical players, which speeds their game up and upsets the delicate balance of player styles (vertical versus patient) and Rodri’s suspensions and John Stones’ injuries have made matters more complicated. That helps to explain their recent struggles in the Premier League and shows the problems run deeper than simply De Bruyne, but his absence did force that change of shape.

On the one hand, De Bruyne’s absence is massive for City. Since the start of the 2016-17 season, Guardiola’s first in charge of City, the Belgian has created more chances than anybody else in the Premier League — and by miles, too.

He has created over 200 more chances than second-placed Pascal Gross, over 70 more chances from open play than Mohamed Salah and, when it comes to City’s chance creation in that time, he has 349 more than Bernardo Silva and 169 more than Raheem Sterling.

Nobody at City can play the types of crosses and through balls he can and so it would be impossible to ask one of his team-mates to occupy the same areas and aim towards Haaland at the back post.

On the other hand, City do at least have players who are stylistically similar to him, more vertical players who are suited to direct attacking play, just in different ways.

The really crucial…