The Capitals win close games and get blown out in losses, and that’s dangerous

During the holiday break, I saw one hockey pundit figuratively throw up his hands about the Washington Capitals. The team has the 25th best goal differential in the league, but they have the 11th best record, and that don’t make no sense. The Caps are scoring less than they should (given the volume and quantity of their offense), but they’ve still got way more standings points than you’d expect for a team that’s been outscored 88 to 75.

I think we can figure out what’s going on here. It’s the blowouts.

A team’s ranking by goal difference and their ranking by standings points tend to line up closely, with most teams within three spots of each other by each measurement. The Capitals are off by 14 spots.

As a guy who Watches The Games, I suspect I know what the main reason behind this is, but I think we have an X factor to discuss first: Spencer Carbery. As with any new coach and perhaps extra with a rookie coach, the Capitals were unstable to start the season. And I mean unstable as a polite euphemism for bad. The team’s goal differential after their first five games was minus-13, the worst number in the league at that point (worse than San Jose by one goal). The Capitals won just one of those games, a narrow 3-2 win over the Flames, but their real trouble didn’t occur until later.

The Capitals played very poor hockey in the middle of November. Between the 10th and 20th of that month, the Capitals controlled a league-worst 37.7 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play– and they won all four games with 15 goals to opponents’ six. Only one of those wins was a one-goal win, but one-goal wins are what Washington excels at.

Of their one-goal games, Washington has won 63 percent, seventh best in the league. To close out November, five of Washington’s six games were won by one goal (or in the shootout), and Washington won four of them. The four games leading into the Christmas break were all one-goal games, and Washington won three of them. They’ve lost six of their 16 one-goal games, but they’ve taken the loser point in five of those six. So in close games, Washington has taken 78 percent of the available points from them. This suggests extraordinarily good luck; the Capitals must not depend on it going forward.

And in the games Washington has lost, they tend to get blown out. They’ve lost by three or more goals eight times – representing more than half of their losses. In games they’ve lost, Washington has scored 19 goals and allowed 60 from opponents – a minus-41 differential. Their differential in wins is just plus-28, with 59 goals by Washington and 31 from opponents. Here are those figures as averages:

They win close and lose big.

When the Capitals are trailing, they’ve been outscored 32 to 23, 28th in the league. And they’ve done this despite controlling 53.4 percent of the expected goals in trailing situations,…