The top 10 MotoGP prospects heading into 2024

Even a single weekend can make all the difference in the world to a rider’s prospects in the fickle and excitable world of MotoGP – which means 12 months is a veritable lifetime.

Last season in Moto2 and Moto3 will have had an enormous impact on how premier-class teams view their potential rookie options, and while so will 2024, junior riders will only have a very limited time to add to (or spoil) their bonafides before much of the 2025 MotoGP grid is set in stone.

And with MotoGP as temperamental as it is when it comes to rider value (and with media also being that way, of course), the below list of the top prospects on the road to MotoGP is a significant departure from its predecessor feature from just over a year ago.

The #4 and #3 picks from that list are in MotoGP already, but the #2 and the #1 picks aren’t – while also having missed the cut in this year’s edition, the former (Alonso Lopez) through being showed up by his team-mate and the latter (Izan Guevara) through a near total write-off Moto2 rookie campaign that couldn’t help but create doubt.

With Guevara in a rut and needing to prove himself, and with Pedro Acosta having vacated the ‘next big thing’ title through his inevitable MotoGP promotion, there’s a new leading prospect in town – but many more riders who could potentially usurp him with just a string of good results.

Our MotoGP writers Simon Patterson and Valentin Khorounzhiy have amassed their list of the 10 riders with the most premier-class stock and potential across this year’s Moto3 and Moto2 grids – having to square off several disagreements and making some painful cuts along the way.

10 Ai Ogura

Last year: An anticipated title push for the Japanese was immediately destroyed by injury, and it took him much of the season to get himself back to anywhere near the title-contending Ogura from the year before – while also ensuring that the Idemitsu-sponsored LCR Honda MotoGP ride that had long looked earmarked for Ogura remains in the possession of Takaaki Nakagami.

This year: Having spent five seasons with Honda Team Asia, Ogura hasn’t just swapped those familiar surroundings for a ride with the MT Helmets – MSI team, but will also campaign a Boscoscuro instead of the familiar Kalex.

Simon’s view: As recently as a season ago, Ogura’s MotoGP shot looked a sure thing. However, in yet more proof of the theory that you never turn down a chance when offered it, his dip in form since then, Honda’s increasing reliance on the experience of current racer Nakagami and the rise of other hot young Japanese prospects means that the 2022 Moto2 title contender might have left it too late.

Val’s view: He’s still plenty young enough to make a MotoGP promotion happen – but may have been better-served being on that LCR Honda bike already, for all of its rider-throwing tendencies.

9 Jaume Masia

Last year: Masia won the Moto3 title at the sixth time of asking (though had been a race winner in all but one…