Why each NHL contender will win the Stanley Cup this season

The Stanley Cup is anyone’s to win right now. The field is wide open with a long list of contenders and very few teams (if any) separating themselves from the pack.

That was the conclusion we came to on Monday in looking at every team’s Cup chances since the 2018-19 season. Now it’s time to put that conclusion to the test by diving into each contending team’s chances — why this is their year.

There are 14 teams with a reasonable shot at winning it all this season. Here’s why each of them will win the Stanley Cup.

Cup odds: 15 percent

Why they’ll win

When I started looking into doing this exercise last week there was no Stanley Cup favorite; no team north of 8-to-1 odds pulling away from the pack. Turns out that was a lie — the Oilers have become that team. They’re starting to pull away from the pack and currently sit with a 15 percent chance of winning it all.

That’s roughly where the team started the year so if you missed the first half of the season, you technically didn’t miss anything. In reality, you missed the beautiful valley of Stanley Cup odds the Oilers created with their roller-coaster season. If their odds were a naturally occurring geological feature, it would be one of the most beautiful places on earth.

Oilers’ odds

The Oilers dug themselves a deep hole to start the season, but even when their results were stunningly bad there was evidence of a contending team in their underlying numbers. Edmonton has been consistently dominant all season in outchancing opponents and currently holds a three-percentage-point edge in expected goals over the next-best team.

Now that Connor McDavid is back to doing Best Player On Earth stuff and Stuart Skinner has remembered how to make a save, the results have come — in waves. One seven-game win streak and another 10-game (and counting) win streak later and the Oilers are firmly back in the playoff picture, contending for home ice again.

There’s a lot to love about the Oilers right now. They have the best player in the league leading the most dominant top line we’ve seen in years. They have another top-five center commanding the next line. They have a massive advantage on the power play and a suddenly excellent penalty kill. They dominate at five-on-five like no other team. And their defense corps looks the best it has in decades thanks to the addition of Mattias Ekholm and the subsequent emergence of Evan Bouchard. As long as Skinner is just average (and he’s been much better than that lately) this team is probably the one to fear most.

They were the preseason favorite for a reason and they’re showing exactly why now.

Fatal flaw

Limited scoring depth after the Big Four and a starting goalie with extreme Pumpkin Potential.

Cup odds: 11 percent

Why they’ll win

Slowly but surely, the Carolina Hurricanes have been building up to this moment. They’ve carefully and methodically exploited every edge they can to build a Cup contender brimming with depth…