Baseball Hall of Fame vote: Alex Rodriguez’s stagnation, Chase Utley’s strong

The results of the 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame vote are now known, with Jim Leyland having been elected by the Contemporary Baseball Era committee and the BBWAA selecting Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton and Joe Mauer. We’ve discussed the inductees enough in other places and will again in July when the Hall of Fame induction ceremony transpires. Here, I’m going to dive into the rest of the voting results. 

Wagner is one year away

That subheading there works in two ways. Billy Wagner is likely just one year away from making it into Cooperstown, as he got 73.8% of the vote this time around (with 75% needed to make the Hall of Fame) and history tells us that nearly every time that means the player gets in the next year. Of course, it is also Wagner’s 10th year on the ballot, so he’d better make it. The 2025 ballot will be Wagner’s last, whether he gets in or not. 

I expanded on how strongly history is with Wagner here.

A-Rod and Manny look cooked

This was Manny Ramírez’s eighth year on the ballot and he got 32.5% of the vote after getting 33.2% last year. With his two PED suspensions measured against the fates of players like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, there just isn’t any realistic way for Ramírez to get even close to induction. He won’t even get to 40% of the vote, in all likelihood, let alone a majority, and certainly won’t get to 75%.

I knew Alex Rodriguez wouldn’t come close in his first year on the ballot and figured he wouldn’t gain a ton of traction in his second, but it seems like his status was cemented with this vote. He’s gone from 34.3% to 35.7% to 34.8%. Yep, not only is he without momentum, but he actually went backward in Year 3. The voting body is always evolving to a younger group, but that’s a really gradual moment and he only has a maximum of seven years left. To already see a dip before reaching even 36% sure seems like a death knell for his chances. 

I could be wrong on A-Rod. Seven years is a long time and who knows what could happen in there that might change the views of those open to having their minds changed. He does have one of the, say, 10-15 best statistical ledgers in MLB history. Maybe he starts gaining momentum next year or the year after, though it doesn’t seem possible right now. 

I’m not wrong on Manny, though. He’s done.

Jones, Beltrán with gains, look to avoid plateau

Andruw Jones jumped from 58.1% to 61.6%. It’s a gain, albeit a modest one. The pro-Jones camp would’ve loved to see more of a leap forward here in his seventh year on the ballot. A good number of candidates who get to this range with at least three years of cushion left end up in the Hall of Fame, but there’s always the possibility of hitting a voting plateau. There’s generally a portion of the voting bloc firmly set on a yes or no with a player, leaving a certain percentage open to changing their minds. We’ll see the needle move a bit, but at some point…