Dribble Handoff: Predicting Kentucky’s final SEC record and NCAA Tournament

It has been almost five calendar years since Kentucky played a game beyond the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. While there is reason for optimism that this year’s team could be the first one in a while to make a deep run, Tuesday night’s loss at South Carolina showed how the No. 6 Wildcats remain an unfinished product heading into the final two games of January.

With six freshmen now part of the rotation after the NCAA’s clearance of Croatian big man Zvonimir Ivišić, UK needs its young stars to play beyond their years at a time when age and experience are more prevalent than ever. They have done it in impressive spurts, such as in a win over No. 3 North Carolina in the CBS Sports Classic and a 105-point showing Saturday against Georgia

There have also been cringeworthy moments, such as a Dec. 2 home loss to UNC Wilmington and Tuesday night’s dud performance, which resulted in South Carolina’s largest-ever win against a top-10 foe. Is Kentucky for real? To some that question has already been answered with an emphatic yes. To others, the Wildcats may be more flash than substance as February approaches.

For this week’s Dribble Handoff our writers are evaluating that question and offering their projections for how the rest of Kentucky’s season will play out.

UK doesn’t get top-four seed but still a Final Four threat

• Predicted conference record: 12-6
• Predicted NCAA Tournament seed: No. 5

I still think Kentucky has the sport’s most talented and deepest roster and thus still believe the Wildcats can be legitimate national title contenders nearly regardless of what seed they get on Selection Sunday. But I am starting to be skeptical that UK will get a top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament, and I think a No. 5 seed-or-worse now seems more likely than a No. 2 seed because the Wildcats’ resume remains shaky.

They’re only 2-3 in Q1.

They have a Q3 loss at home to UNC-Wilmington.

And the way they’re currently guarding — UK is 121st in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to BartTorvik.com — suggests the Wildcats might not even be headed for a top-three finish in the SEC. Still, don’t ever forget, John Calipari had a super-talented roster in 2014 that similarly had ups and downs throughout the season and only got a No. 8 seed on Selection Sunday before flipping a switch during the NCAA Tournament and advancing all the way to the title game — and that’s among the reasons I’m not too interested in living and dying with every UK win or loss right now. The Wildcats still have seven-plus weeks before the bracket is set, and as long as they’re playing well by then they’ll have a reasonable shot to win a national championship regardless of what seed the committee gives them. — Gary Parrish

Kentucky has zero bad losses the rest of the season 

• Predicted conference record: 12-6
• Predicted NCAA Tournament seed: No. 4

In a sentence: More big wins and zero bad losses from…