Rosenthal: Breaking down Héctor Neris’ Cubs deal, plus more MLB free agency

Considering Héctor Neris’ age, diminished velocity and lack of recent closing experience, he probably was valued appropriately. But at first glance, it appeared the right-handed reliever’s one-year, $9 million free-agent agreement was a steal for the Cubs.

Neris, entering his age 35 season, is four years younger than David Robertson. His ERA last season was 1.71 to Robertson’s 3.03. And while the Astros trusted Neris enough to use him in five of their seven games in the American League Championship Series, Robertson was less effective after getting traded from the Mets to the Marlins, losing the closer’s role.

So, how is it that Neris’ deal with the Cubs is worth $2.5 million less than Robertson’s contract with the Rangers?

For one thing, the surface financial numbers tell only so much.

Neris’ $9 million deal also includes a club option for a second season that can turn into a $9 million player option if he makes 60 appearances. Deferrals, meanwhile, reduce the present-day value of Robertson’s $11.5 million guarantee. Robertson’s breakdown reportedly includes a $5 million salary in 2024, a $1.5 million buyout on a $7 million mutual option for 2025 and $5 million deferred ($1 million per year) from ‘27 to ‘31.

Dig deeper, and it becomes easier to understand why Neris also received less than free-agent relievers Jordan Hicks (four years, $44 million) Robert Stephenson (three years, $33 million), Reynaldo López (three years, $30 million) and Aroldis Chapman (one year, $10.5 million).

Neris doesn’t possess stuff as dominant as those pitchers, two of whom, Hicks and López, will be tried as starters. Only Chapman, who turns 36 in Feburary, is older. Perhaps most significant, Neris’ average fastball velocity dropped from 94.3 mph in 2022 to 93.0 in ‘23, a loss of nearly 1.5 mph, according to Statcast. On top of that, his expected stats were not as impressive as his actual ones.

While Neris remains durable, ranking third among relievers in regular-season innings the past five seasons, teams projecting his future performance perhaps saw warning signs. Chapman, by contrast, is trending in a positive direction, his average fastball velocity rising from 97.5 mph in 2022 to 99 in ‘23, seventh among relievers.

Neris opted out of his $8.5 million player option with the Astros to become a free agent, and ultimately landed a better deal. Perhaps he will get more closing opportunities with the Cubs; his deal includes incentives for games finished. But the deal he received seemingly was the one he deserved.

Red Sox free-agency approach gets more curious

The deferrals in Robertson’s deal are indicative of the reluctance of Rangers ownership to commit short-term money while their local television revenue remains uncertain for 2024 and beyond.

A potential reunion between the Rangers and free agent left-hander Jordan…