Houston Astros 2024 top 20 prospects: Jacob Melton, Luis Baez lead the way

The Astros’ system remains at a low point thanks to the trade for Justin Verlander, draft positions at the end of the first round or later every year, and some injuries to a few promising names. Their 2023 draft class looks strong after the first pick, and the fact that they’re not likely to need to dip into the system to help the major-league club this year gives them a year to build back up.

Astros 2024 top 20 prospects

(Note: Seasonal ages as of July 1, 2024. Scouting grades are on the traditional 20-80 or 2-8 scouting scale.)

1. Jacob Melton, OF (Just missed)

Height: 6-3 | Weight: 210 | Bats: L | Throws: L | Seasonal age in 2024: 23

The Astros’ second-round pick in 2022, Melton was a late cut from the top 100, primarily because his approach isn’t good enough yet to get him there, although he has some plus tools including his raw power and his defense in center, which gives him a great floor as an extra outfielder. He’s overly aggressive at the plate and sells out for power, even though he has great bat speed and barrel control, so he should see some power come naturally as a function of the hard contact he’s making — averaging 90 mph and topping out at 112.

He’s had some advantages in the minors to boost his stat line, with 85 percent of his plate appearances last year coming against right-handed pitching (as in, with the platoon advantage), while he played most of the year in High-A Asheville, a terrific hitter’s park, and hit just .220/.318/.392 on the road. He needs to cut down on his chase rate and just make better swing decisions overall. He’s got 30-30 upside with plus defense in center if he can show a better approach at the plate.

2. Luis Baez, OF

Height: 6-1 | Weight: 205 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Seasonal age in 2024: 20

Baez has, to use the technical term, some big whack, hitting balls well over 110 mph as a teenager and hitting seven homers in 17 games in the Florida Complex League — enough to finish sixth in the FCL even though he played about a third of the season. He’s going to end up in right field, with a cannon of an arm to stay there, so it’s going to come down to how much he hits. He hunts fastballs but his stint in Low A to finish the year showed his pitch recognition is well behind the rest of his game. He has 30-homer upside, and if he gets to High-A Asheville at some point this year he might put up some ridiculous power numbers.

3. Zach Dezenzo, 3B

Height: 6-4 | Weight: 220 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Seasonal age in 2024: 24

Dezenzo’s an above-average third baseman who’s such a good athlete he might be able to handle center, with plus speed and good instincts all around. At the plate, he’s caught in between hitting for average and hitting for power; to get to more than average pop he has to sell out, and it’s going to pull his contact rate down, which you started to see…