South Carolina vs. Auburn prediction: College basketball odds, picks

Somehow, the South Carolina Gamecocks are tied atop the SEC standings with a 9-2 record.

The turnaround Lamont Paris has pulled off in his second year is remarkable.

South Carolina went 4-14 in SEC play last season. 

Playing in The Jungle is always challenging, and the situational spot screams Auburn. 

But the schematic matchup favors South Carolina, so I’m betting the Gamecocks keep it close on Wednesday night. 

South Carolina vs. Auburn pick

The Tigers should be fired up back at home after a brutal road loss to Florida, and the Gamecocks are likely due for a loss after seven straight games. 

So, I fully expect Auburn to pull out this all-important conference victory and stay within a game of Alabama in the SEC conference standings. 

However, I don’t see the Tigers winning on Wednesday night in blowout fashion. 

South Carolina’s success has come from its ability to control the pace of games, turning every game into a rock-fighting grinder.

The Gamecocks rank 355th nationally and last in the SEC tempo, and all of their conference games have stayed under 68 possessions. 

On offense, the Gamecocks run a methodical five-out swing motion offense that leverages a good-shooting frontcourt (center BJ Mack is a 31% 3-point shooter) to invert the floor and force opponents to defend out of position.

They’re happy to eat up the clock in the process, boasting the 13th-longest average offensive possession length nationally (19.6 seconds). 

On defense, the Gamecocks run a deep drop-coverage scheme that denies motion offenses and forces them into isolation and ball-screen creation.

Generally, this also forces opponents into late shot-clock attempts, as 10% of their defensive possessions end with a shot in the last four seconds of the clock (93rd percentile). 

Additionally, South Carolina is among the best teams at denying transition opportunities, allowing the 12th-fewest per game nationally (8.6). 

So, the Gamecocks eat up the clock on offense and defense while forcing opponents to play in the half-court. 

It’s incredibly difficult to cover a double-digit spread in that game script, partially explaining why the Gamecocks are 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season. 

And I don’t think Auburn can buck those trends. 

Auburn runs a flex-motion offense that heavily utilizes cutters, and it doesn’t have many great isolation or ball-screen creators.

So, often, the Tigers struggle to shoot late in the clock (.58 PPP, seventh percentile), which they minimize by trying to run the floor in transition (26th nationally in…