NHL predictions 5.0: Cup contender chaos and the endless coaching carousel
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Who will be this year’s dark horse Stanley Cup contender? For the first three months of the season, many thought it would be the L.A. Kings. Now their days of looking like a legitimate Cup contender seem to be a thing of the past. Meanwhile, not many expected the Vancouver Canucks to contend coming into this season. Now they sit atop the NHL standings, and their coach is the frontrunner for the Jack Adams Award.
Our staffers didn’t imagine the Philadelphia Flyers would make the playoffs. Now they are clear favorites.
But that doesn’t mean we are always wrong. Last month’s poll correctly predicted Lane Lambert would be the next coach fired. Who is at the top of that list this month?
This week, The Athletic polled staffers on the same set of prediction questions we asked in the preseason and every month since. Here’s how our expectations for 2023-24 have evolved, with analysis, critique and trolling from national writers Sean Gentille and Hailey Salvian, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and NHL betting expert Jesse Granger.
GO DEEPER
NHL Power Rankings: We wrote a haiku for every team
Who will win the Stanley Cup?
| PERCENT OF VOTE | OCT. | NOV. | DEC. | JAN. | FEB. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
33.3% |
30.0% |
22.6% |
12.9% |
23.5% |
|
|
24.2% |
0.0% |
6.5% |
12.9% |
20.6% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
6.5% |
17.6% |
|
|
6.1% |
16.7% |
32.3% |
19.4% |
14.7% |
|
|
0.0% |
3.3% |
3.2% |
3.2% |
8.8% |
|
|
0.0% |
3.3% |
12.9% |
12.9% |
5.9% |
|
|
0.0% |
30.0% |
12.9% |
12.9% |
2.9% |
|
|
3.0% |
0.0% |
6.5% |
3.2% |
2.9% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
3.2% |
3.2% |
2.9% |
|
|
30.3% |
16.7% |
0.0% |
6.5% |
0.0% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
6.5% |
0.0% |
|
|
3.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
Goldman: The Oilers’ winning streak has clearly instilled some confidence in their chances. It’s interesting to see how we’re all trending toward Dallas and Edmonton over Colorado during this past month.
Granger: The Canucks are just humming along at a league-best .727 points percentage with a plus-61 goal differential (next closest is Florida at plus-43), and still getting almost no votes here. I understand the skepticism for a team that hasn’t shown it can get it done in the playoffs, but Vancouver has all the ingredients for a deep run. The balanced scoring and elite goaltending have gone on long enough at this point to quell most concerns.
Gentille: I’ve been in on the Stars since October, and I’m not about to veer off course. They’re one of the very best five-on-five teams in the league and top five in points percentage and goal differential — all without Jake Oettinger at his best.
Salvian: I am with Sean on this one. The Stars are fourth in the league standings and have been around the top all season. They could get even better at the deadline if they add some depth on defense. I haven’t changed my Stars pick over the past five months, and nothing is telling me to ditch them now.
Who will be the runners-up?
| PERCENT OF VOTE | OCT. | NOV. | DEC. | JAN. | FEB. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.0% |
40.0% |
45.2% |
32.3% |
17.6% |
|
|
33.3% |
20.0% |
3.2% |
3.2% |
17.6% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
6.5% |
25.8% |
14.7% |
|
|
18.2% |
16.7% |
6.5% |
12.9% |
11.8% |
|
|
0.0% |
6.7% |
12.9% |
6.5% |
11.8% |
|
|
9.1% |
0.0% |
6.5% |
6.5% |
11.8% |
|
|
9.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
6.5% |
2.9% |
|
| NHL predictions 5.0: Cup contender chaos and the endless coaching carousel 2024-02-17 22:23:47
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