NASCAR odds, picks for Sunday at Richmond

The NASCAR Cup Series makes its first of two stops this season at Richmond Raceway.

It’ll be the track’s first night race since 2021, with the Toyota Owners 400 beginning at 7 p.m. ET on FOX.

The oddsmakers are expecting a big night from Toyota, as FanDuel Sportsbook has Joe Gibbs Racing drivers Denny Hamlin (+430), Christopher Bell (+430), Martin Truex Jr. (+600) and Ty Gibbs (+850) as the four favorites.

It’ll be interesting to see if they can live up to the lofty expectations. They had speed at Richmond last season, but Kyle Larson and Chris Buescher won in a Chevy and Ford, respectively.

Here are my favorite bets for the 2024 Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway.

Toyota Owners 400 best bets

To win: Denny Hamlin (+450, ESPN BET)

Hamlin is a short favorite to win on Sunday n ight, but I have no problem taking him at this price. Everything is going in his favor as he heads to his best track.

The Virginia native has four wins at Richmond, which is low for all of his success at the track. If you focus on the last seven races at Richmond, he has five finishes of fourth or better.

He led 20-plus laps in six of those races.

Overall, Hamlin has been the fastest car in the Next-Gen era at Richmond and short, flat tracks. If it wasn’t for a pit-road penalty in last year’s Spring race, he likely enters Sunday with six straight top five finishes at Richmond.

There’s no need to overthink Hamlin at Richmond. Bet on the No. 11 car to capture his second victory of 2024.

Martin Truex Jr. top-3 finish (+210, bet365)

Like the oddsmakers, I’m very high on Toyota this weekend.

I pegged Toyota as the winning manufacturer in my 2024 Toyota Owners 400 prop bets. I’ll continue the trend by highlighting Truex Jr.

It took a while for Truex to figure out Richmond but he’s been one of the drivers to beat over the last six years.

If you look at his last 10 races, he has three wins, seven top-fives, and nine top-10 finishes.

Pit strategy cost Truex a top-three finish in the Spring 2022 race.

He would’ve finished no worse than third without a late caution in last year’s Spring race.

Truex has led 90-plus laps in nine of the last 14 Richmond races. I’d be shocked if he wasn’t up front and competing for the win.

Chris Buescher top-5 finish (+250, bet365)

It wasn’t long ago that I was talking about Buescher’s slow start to 2024.

Since a 37th-place finish at Las Vegas, he has three straight top-10 finishes.

There’s a good chance he extends the streak at Richmond, where he’s been strong in the Next-Gen era. He had top-five speed en…